用投入产出模型分析旅游对上海经济的影响

利用2002年上海市统计年鉴和投入产出表(1997年度.价值型)数据,用投入产出模型分析旅游对经济产出和收入的直接和乘数影响,计算出旅游产出乘数为2.8876,旅游收入乘数为0.6497,旅游消费引起产出增长的乘数效应主要集中在企业服务业、化学工业、商业、饮食业、旅客运输业等行业,然后将旅游乘数与已有研究的香港、新家坡、秦皇岛、天津市旅游乘数进行了比较,最后讨论了投入产出法和卫星帐户法在分析旅游经济影响方面的优缺点。

TOURISM ECONOMIC IMPACT ON SHANGHAI BY USING INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL

With the employment of input-output model,after analyzing the data in Shanghai statistical yearbook 2002 and Shanghai input-output table 1997,this article calculates the direct and multiplier economic impacts of tourism on Shanghai and then works out that the output multiplier of Shanghai tourism is 2.8876 and the income multiplier is 0.6497.Meanwhile it is concluded that the tourists' expenditures have the multiplier effects mainly on output in sectors such as service for business,chemical manufactures,trade,food and beverage services and transportation.In addition,Shanghai tourism multiplier is compared with that of Hong Kong,Singapore,Qinhuangdao and Tianjin.Finally the article discusses the advantages and disadvantages of both the input-output model and tourism-satellite-account for the analysis of tourism economic impact.