政府支出与居民消费:替代或互补——基于非线性有效消费函数的实证

以非线性有效消费函数为基础,笔者构造了一个政府支出与居民消费的跨期替代模型,并利用1978年～2004年相关数据,实证研究了我国政府支出与居民消费的关系.研究结果表明,在短期内,我国政府支出与居民消费呈互补关系;但在长期内,我国政府支出与居民消费呈替代关系,即政府支出挤占居民消费支出.因此,在短期内,政府可以通过增加支出增加居民消费以提高社会总需求;但在长期经济均衡时,政府不宜采用支出政策来实现长期经济目标.

Government Expenditure and Resident Consumption: Substitution or Mutual -complement——An Empirical Research Based on Nonlinear Effective -Consumption Function

Based on the nonlinear effective-consumption function, this paper constructs an inter-temporal substitution model between government expenditure and private consumption, and empirically researches the relationship between them on the basis of correlating data in 1978~2004. The research result shows that the government expenditure and private consumption are mutually complementary in a short term in our country; but they present a substitution relationship in the long run, that is, government expenditure supplants private consumption. Hence, our government can increase private consumption by means of increasing government expenditure so as to increase overall demand of the society, but in long-term economic balance it is inappropriate for the government to adopt expenditure policy to realize long-term economic growth.