日本政府财政支出的经济增长效应及启示

政府财政支出与经济增长存在一定的相关关系,但孰为因果莫衷一是。通过对1956-2008年日本政府财政支出与经济增长的协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验,发现日本政府财政投资性支出与财政消费性支出均与经济增长长期内存在稳定的正向协整关系及单向因果关系,经济增长是财政支出增长的格兰杰因,而财政支出无论是投资性还是消费性支出都不是经济增长的格兰杰因。从这一结论出发,我国应吸取日本的经验教训,在实施积极的财政政策时,要控制规模、优化结构、确保质量、提高效益。

On the Economic Growth Effects of Japanese Government Financial Spending and the Inspirations

There is a certain correlation between government financial expenditure and economic growth,but ideas differ at which is the cause or the result.Through a cointegration analysis between Japanese government expenditure and economic growth during 1956-2008 and a Granger causality test,it is found that there exists a stable long-term positive cointegration relationship and an one-way causal relationship between the financial investment expenditure and financial consumer spending of Japanese government and the economic growth;economic growth is the Granger cause of the growth of financial expenditure,while the financial expenditure,whether investment or consumer,is not the Granger cause of economic growth.Starting from this conclusion,China should draw lessons from Japan’s experience in implementing the proactive fiscal policy by controlling the size,optimizing the structure,ensuring quality and improving efficiency.