货币政策工具与中介目标选择:基于法定准备金操作的研究

利率和货币量哪个更适合作为货币政策中介目标是一个很有争议的问题,目前许多文献对这个问题的研究并不涉及货币政策工具与利率以及货币量之间的关系。这样的研究实际上隐含了一个前提,即货币政策工具和利率以及货币量之间存在明确的、稳定的关系,从而保证利率目标或者货币量是可控的。基于法定准备金操作的研究表明,法定准备金操作和货币量之间存在确定的关系,而和利率之间的关系是不确定的。导致利率和法定准备金操作关系不确定的主要原因,则是IS曲线斜率正负性的不确定性;同时,对现阶段中国IS曲线斜率稳定性的实证研究表明,其斜率正负性是不稳定的。因此,利率不适合作为货币政策中介目标。

Instruments of Monetary Policy and the Selection of Intermediate Targets:Research Based on the Legal Reserve Operation

It remains controversial which financial variable is the best intermediate target of monetary policy,interest rate or monetary aggregate,.The research does not deal with the relations between instruments of monetary policy and the possible intermediate targets.An assumed premise in the research approach is that the relationship between intermediate targets and instruments of monetary policy is certain so that the intermediate targets are controllable.However,this study based on the analysis of reserve requirement indicates that although the relation between reserve requirement and monetary aggregate is certain,such certain relation does not exist between reserve requirement and interest rate,and that the uncertain relation between reserve requirement and interest rate comes from the uncertainty of IS curve's slope.The paper also indicates that interest rate is not suitable as intermediate target at present in China because the IS curve's slope is not steady.