美国贸易逆差:增长惯性与可持续性

美国的经常项目逆差特别是贸易逆差“历史悠久”,尤其是近年来高速增长,已引起人们广泛的关注。本文作者认为:20世纪90年代以来的美国贸易逆差已很难单从汇率、贸易政策及产品竞争力等单个变量来加以解释。通过运用滞后一年的时间数列相关分析及回归分析,本文得出的结论是:当期美国贸易逆差是前期美国贸易逆差的惯性增长,并且只要美国资本与金融账户的盈余足够冲抵贸易逆差,美国的贸易逆差便具有可持续性。针对近期美国人制造的“人民币升值论”,结合近十年来中美双边贸易现实,说明美国贸易逆差与人民币汇率之间没有必然联系,人民币升值也不可能改善美国的贸易收支状况。

An Analysis of US Trade Deficit:Growth Inertia and Sustainability

US current account deficit-especially trade deficit is an old-line issue. In last years, US trade deficit grew cripplingly, which has called wide attention. It is difficult to explain US trade deficit that produced from 1990's to present by single variables such as exchange rate, trade policy or competitive power, I consider. Exercising regression and correlation model (legging one year) in statistics to analyze US trade deficit time-series data, this paper conclude that the last year's US trade deficit is inertia of growth of the year before. And US trade deficit is sustainable as long as US can sustain strong Dollar, the capital and finance account surplus can offset the trade deficit. In the last part of this paper, I have studied the details of bilateral trade between China and US in the last 10 years, which refute the fallacy of "RMB should appreciate". It has no certain relationship between US trade deficit and RMB exchange rate. Appreciation of RMB can not improve US balance of trade.