农民收入结构变化对农民种粮积极性的影响——基于粮食主产区与主销区的对比分析

本文基于1993—2017年中国粮食主产区和主销区的面板数据,在比较两个区域农民收入及其结构变化的基础上,使用面板矫正标准误(PCSE)和面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型实证研究并比较主产区和主销区农民收入结构变化对农民种粮积极性的短期和长期影响。结果表明:无论从短期还是从长期来看,对于主产区而言,工资性收入和政策变量对粮播比有显著的负向影响,家庭经营性收入、转移性收入对其有显著正向影响,而财产性收入对其影响不显著。对于主销区而言,家庭经营性收入、转移性收入和财产性收入对粮播比的影响方向与主产区相同,但是工资性收入对其影响与主产区不同,有显著正向影响,政策变量的影响不显著。在长期,工资性收入对主产区和主销区粮播比的影响程度逐渐增加,经营性收入与财产性收入对主产区的影响更大,而转移性收入对主销区的影响更大。因此,在粮食播种面积连续3年下降的背景下,需要进一步优化农业补贴政策,转变粮食生产方式,鼓励主销区增加粮食播种面积,建立多层次农业保险体系。

The Impact of the Changes of Farmers’ Income Structure on Farmers’ Enthusiasm for Grain Production——Based on the Comparative Analysis between Main Grain Producing Areas and Main Marketing Areas

Using the panel data of China’s main grain-producing areas and main grain marketing areas from 1993 to 2017,based on the comparison of farmers’income and structural changes in the two areas,the article empirically studies and compares the short and long impact of the changes of farmers’income structure in the two areas on farmers’enthusiasm for grain production by the method of panel corrects the standard error(PCSE)and panel vector autoregression(PVAR).The results show that in the short and long term,for the main grain-producing areas,wage income and policy variable have a significant negative impact on the proportion of grain sown area,while family operating income and transfer income have a significant positive impact,and property income has no significant impact.For main grain marketing areas,the impact of family operating income,transfer income and property income are the same as that in the main grain production areas,however,wage income has a significant positive impact,which is different from that of the main grain-producing areas,and the impact of policy variable is not significant.In the long run,the impact of wage income in main grain production areas and main grain marketing areas gradually increases,the impact of operating income and property income for the main grain production areas is greater,and the impact of transfer income for the main grain marketing areas is greater.Therefore,in the backdrop of three consecutive years of declining grain sown areas,it is necessary to further optimize the agricultural subsidy policy,change the mode of grain production,encourage the main marketing areas to increase the areas planted with food,and establish a multi-level agricultural insurance system.