山东省苹果种植面积的时空演变特征分析

目的]利用1978~2015年山东省苹果种植相关数据,实证分析山东省苹果种植面积的时空演变规律及其内在影响因素。方法]从省域、区域、地市层面分析山东省苹果种植面积的时空演变规律,并运用多元线性回归模型实证分析山东省苹果种植面积变动的具体影响因素。结果]山东省苹果种植面积从1978年的18.330万hm~2增至2015年的29.968万hm~2,总体增加,并以1995年为拐点先增后减,呈"倒U"形分布。从区域层面看,胶东半岛苹果种植面积稳步增加,泰沂山区、鲁西鲁北平原苹果种植面积持续萎缩,直接导致山东省苹果种植面积的不断减少和苹果主产区向胶东半岛的迁移。从地市层面看,山东省17地市中仅有胶东半岛的烟台、威海两地市苹果种植面积有所增加,其余15地市苹果种植面积均有不同程度的减少。说明山东省苹果主产区呈东进西退、北进南退的变迁特征。结论]山东省苹果种植面积变动是资源禀赋、种植成本、种植业内部比较效益、种植传统和种植惯性、非农就业机会、非农就业收入、国家政策、地区政策、技术进步等众多因素共同作用的结果。基础设施条件、种植传统和种植惯性、非农就业机会、非农就业收入、地区政策的影响更为显著。其中,种植传统与种植惯性、地区政策对山东省苹果种植面积产生显著正向影响;非农就业机会和非农就业收入产生显著负向影响;基础设施条件向耕地的倾斜也产生显著不利影响。而种植成本、种植比较效益、国家政策、技术进步等因素的影响并不显著。

STUDY OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION CHARACTERISTICS OF APPLE PLANTING AREA IN SHANDONG PROVINCE

Based on the data of apple planting from 1978 to 2015 in Shandong province, the temporal and spatial evolution of apple planting area in Shandong province and its internal influence factors were analyzed by constructing multiple regression models.The results showed that the apple planting area in Shandong province increased from 183.30khm2 in 1978 to about 299.68khm2 in 2015 and decreased from then, which showed a reverse U-shape. From a regional perspective, the apple planting area increased steadily in Jiaodong Peninsula, but decreased in Taiyi mountain area and the western and northern plains, which directly led to the reduction of apple planting area and the migration of the main apple producing areas to Jiaodong Peninsula. From the perspective of the city level, the apple acreage increased only in Yantai and Weihai city, but the rest 15 cities all showed a decreasing trend with different degrees. It showed that the apple production area in Shandong province had migrated from the west to the east, from the south to the north due to the interaction of various factors, such as resources endowment, planting tradition, apple planting comparative benefits, planting cost, nonagricultural employment opportunity, nonagricultural income, national policy, regional policy, and technological progress,of which, planting tradition and regional policy had a significant positive impact, and nonagricultural employment opportunity and income had a significant negative impact.