人口规模、经济增长、资源禀赋与虚拟土地进口

目的]分析虚拟土地进口的主要影响因素,为我国合理利用"两个市场"和"两种资源"提供决策依据。方法]以1992~2014年的经验数据为依据,建立VAR模型,对我国人口规模、经济增长、资源禀赋与虚拟土地进口之间的关系进行实证分析。结果]人口规模增长、经济发展以及人均耕地锐减是我国虚拟土地进口持续增长的驱动因素,三者对虚拟土地进口增长的驱动作用持续时间较长,且人口和人均耕地面积对虚拟土地进口的贡献呈不断增强趋势,但人均GDP对虚拟土地进口的贡献呈不断下降趋势。结论]在未来一段时间内,虽然我国人口和人均GDP将继续保持双增长,但对促进虚拟土地进口增长的贡献较小,而人均耕地面积的不断减少对虚拟土地进口增长的贡献作用大,且贡献率有不断上升的趋势,耕地资源紧缺将成为我国虚拟土地进口不断攀升的主要影响因素。在当前严峻的资源环境形势下,保障耕地资源数量和质量、优化耕地资源空间配置、合理进口非粮土地密集型农产品、大力支持农业"走出去"等虚拟土地战略措施需要积极落实执行。

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POPULATION SIZE, ECONOMIC GROWTH, RESOURCE ABUNDANCE AND THE IMPORT OF VIRTUAL LAND

To analyze the main influencing factors of virtual land import can provide the decision basis for the rational use of "two markets" and "two kinds of resources" in China. Based on the empirical data of 1992~2014, and the VAR model, this paper analyzed the relationship among population size, economic growth, resource endowment and virtual land import. The empirical results showed that population expansion, rapid economic development, and per capita arable land area decline were the driving factors of China''s virtual land imports. The population and the per capita arable land area of the virtual land import growth contribution rate increased, but the per capita GDP of virtual land imports showed a downward trend. Although China''s population and per capita GDP will continue to maintain double growth, but the contribution to promote virtual land import growth rate was small, and the per capita arable land area continued to reduce the contribution to the role of virtual land import growth. The shortage of cultivated land resources become the main factors affecting China''s rising imports of virtual land. In the current grim situation of resource and environment, it needed to guarantee the quality and quantity of cultivated land resources, optimize the cultivated land resources allocation, reasonable import non grain land intensive agricultural products, and support the agricultural "going out" virtual land strategy.