基于CA-Markov模型的哈尔滨市土地利用变化预测研究

目的]研究土地利用变化特征并预测未来变化趋势,为土地资源合理利用提供科学的依据。方法]以哈尔滨市为例,基于1992、2003和2014年3期遥感数据,建立以经济生态为主的转换规则,采用MCE模型、土地利用重心迁移模型和CA-Markov模型分析研究区22年土地利用动态变化特征,并对2025年土地利用变化进行预测。结果](1)1992~2014年,耕地迅速减少,林地和水域波动变化,草地缓慢减少,建设用地由于耕地的转入不断扩张,未利用地大量转出成为耕地。耕地和建设用地重心具有明显的方向性移动,两者重心呈远离趋势。(2)试验得到的2014年土地利用结果和实际解译数据Kappa系数达0.878 0,表明转换规则的制定可行,模型可信度较高。(3)2014~2025年土地利用变化趋势较1992~2014年存在差异,耕地持续减少,且减少速度加快,林地基本处于动态平衡状态,草地空间位置变化活跃,水域面积增加,建设用地仍然保持增长。耕地重心加快向城市边缘区移动,建设用地重心向西南方向移动速度降低。结论]运用CA-Markov模型对哈尔滨市土地利用变化进行科学合理的分析和预测,对哈尔滨市的土地资源的合理高效利用具有重要意义。

CHANGE AND PREDICTION OF THE LAND USE IN HARBIN CITY BASED ON CA-MARKOV MODEL

To study the characteristics of land use change and to predict future changes is conducive to the rational use of land resources. Based on the data of remote sensing interpretation data in 1992, 2003 and 2014 of Harbin, the CA-Markov model, multi-criteria evaluation model and the land use gravity center model were used to analyze change of land use in past 22 years and to predict land use pattern in 2014 and 2025. The results showed that: (1) The cultivated land area increased obviously, forest and water showed a fluctuation change, and grassland increased solely from 1994 to 2011. Construction land continued to expand. Unutilized land mainly turned into cultivated land. Water and cultivated land frequently transformed each other. (2) The kappa coefficient by comparing the land use prediction results with the interpretation data in 2014 was 0.878 0, which showed that the conversion rule was feasible and the model was credible. (3) The land use change trend in 2013 to 2025 was different from 1992 to 2014. The cultivated land continued to decrease and the forest land was in dynamic balance state. Grassland spatial change was active. The gravity center of cultivated land moved to urban fringe and the moving speed decreased. It concluded that the CA-Markov model can be used to analyze and forecast the land use change in Harbin. It was of great significance to the rational and efficient utilization of land resources in Harbin.