中国食物安全脆弱性评价研究

目的 在全球新冠肺炎疫情等非常态因素影响不断蔓延、地缘格局突变及西方宣称经济脱钩之大背景下,中国食物安全的脆弱性问题愈发凸显,如何提高食物安全韧性成为食物安全战略的重中之重。方法 文章基于“暴露性—敏感性—适应能力”的基本框架,分别从全国层面、区域层面和省级层面建立食物安全脆弱性综合评价指标体系,运用熵值法对各层面食物安全脆弱性水平进行了综合评价,以及运用重点移动方法分析了食物安全脆弱性空间迁移特征。结果 全国食物安全脆弱性指数总体处于下降通道,但存在阶段恢复性的反弹特征;在食物安全脆弱性评价的权重中,食物生产维度最大,且其中的气候因素的权重相对较高;东部地区、主销区和东部沿海经济综合区是食物安全脆弱性较高的区域;天津、宁夏与上海的食物安全脆弱性问题突出;全国食物安全脆弱性重心呈向西南迁移态势,年均移动距离为90km。结论 有必要建立具有更具前瞻性、更高韧性和更强适应能力的食物安全战略,从减轻暴露性风险和敏感性及提高气候因素等适应能力入手,强化食物安全较为脆弱地区的食物安全风险监测、预警和管理机制,提高食物安全的适应能力。

STUDY ON FOOD SAFETY VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT IN CHINA

Under the background of the continuous spread of abnormal factors such as the global COVID-19, the sudden change of geographical pattern and the West''s claim of economic decoupling, how to improve the toughness of food security has become the top priority of the food security strategy. Based on the basic framework of "exposure sensitivity adaptability", a comprehensive evaluation index system of food safety vulnerability was established at the national, regional and provincial levels respectively. The level of Food Safety Vulnerability at all levels was comprehensively evaluated by entropy method, and the spatial migration characteristics of food safety vulnerability were analyzed by key moving method. The results were showed as follows. The national food security vulnerability index was generally in the downward channel, but there was a rebound characteristic of stage recovery. In the weight of food security vulnerability assessment, the dimension of food production was the largest, and the weight of climate factors was relatively high. The eastern region, the main marketing area and the eastern coastal economic comprehensive area were the areas with high food security vulnerability. And the vulnerability of food safety in Tianjin, Ningxia and Shanghai was prominent, and the focus of national food security vulnerability was moving to the southwest, with an average annual moving distance of 90 kilometers. Therefore, it is necessary to start from reducing exposure risk and sensitivity and improving the adaptability to climate factors, strengthening the food safety risk monitoring, warning and management mechanism in vulnerable areas of food safety, so as to improve the adaptability of food safety.