气候变化对我国粮食生产系统影响的研究前沿

在全球气候变化,尤其是气候变暖和大气二氧化碳浓度增加背景下,近半个世纪以来我国主要农区(东北、华北、长江中下游和华南地区)光温水热等气候资源条件时空分布格局发生了比较明显的变化,农田土壤有机质、土壤微生物以及土壤肥力也相应地发生了不同程度的变化。气候变化也导致我国粮食主产区极端气候事件频发,促进农业生物灾害与农业气象灾害形成与发展,进而对我国粮食生产方式、栽培管理、经营方式、种植制度、结构布局产生较大影响。该文分析研究了气候变化与我国粮食生产系统之间的相互作用和相互关系,揭示其内在的影响机理和适应机制,定量模拟气候变化对我国粮食安全的影响程度和适应能力,研究提出我国农业适应气候变化的技术措施。从国家需求和学术发展的角度深入分析了气候变化与我国粮食生产之间的相互作用和相互关系,提出了气候变化对我国粮食生产影响研究领域的许多有待解决的前沿性重大科学问题,阐明了气候变化对我国粮食生产的影响研究,已经成为我国气候变化研究的重点方向之一。

FRONT ISSUES IN STUDYING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GRAIN FARMING SYSTEM IN CHINA

Climate change has a great deal of impacts on grain farming in China, due to its geographical location within the climatic zone of Asian monsoon regime. Climate change, no matter presenting in a form of being warmer or cooler, or change of concentration of green-house gases in the atmosphere, will accelerate the dynamics of spatial distribution of such resource factors as moisture and heat flux for agriculture. Organic matter, microbe and fertility in the soils may also change as a result of climate change. Consequently it may be possible to induce the variations of crop species and their ability to maintain a benefit harvest under a climatically harmful condition. Driven by climate change, it may be possible for the factors of natural disaster to evolve into a deconstructive event, i.e. biological or meteorological catastrophe. Thus climate change may shape profound impacts on grain production, cropping system, farming structure and regional distribution. It is very important to reveal the mechanism of interaction and mutual adaption between climate change and grain farming. It is also very necessary to grasp the magnitude of the impacts and the capability of the adaption, to formulate policies and to launch actions to mitigate the impacts so that the steady development of grain farming can be maintained. International negotiation on climate change issues to take responsibility also requires the answer to the questions of how the impacts might be and in what magnitude they should be. Investigation to the impacts may also contribute to the theoretical and methodological development of the front areas and relevant disciplines. In this study, we analyze the mutual relationship between climate change and grain farming in China from both national demands and academic progress and examine the significance in prolonging the impacts of climate change on grain farming in China. We believe that it has already become a concentrative orientation of climate change to study the impacts of climate change on grain farming system in China.