济宁市乡村振兴驱动因子识别及评价研究

目的 通过对济宁市乡村振兴驱动因子进行识别研究，分析各驱动因子间的关系和相互影响程度，并对其驱动因素进行评价，以期为济宁市乡村振兴战略规划实施提供科学参考。方法 文章运用DEMATE方法和熵权法对济宁市乡村振兴驱动因子进行定性与定量研究，结合两种方法从主观和客观的角度综合分析其驱动因素。结果 在济宁市乡村振兴驱动因子中，休闲农业产值对济宁市乡村振兴发展的影响度最大，农村居民人均可支配收入受其他驱动因子的影响最大，综合来看，基础设施投资额、文化产业支出比重、农民工返乡创业人数、人均受教育年限、休闲农业产值、环保资金投入、人均公园绿地面积、天然气普及率、乡镇卫生院个数共9个因子为济宁市乡村振兴的重要驱动因子。结论 从结果因素来看，贫困发生率、乡村就业人数、人均社会消费品零售额较易受到其他因子影响，充分掌握重要驱动因子之间的相互关系是巩固济宁市乡村振兴结果因素效益的关键；正确协调乡村振兴中的重要驱动因子，对其相互关系进行梳理是促进济宁市乡村发展的重要途径；人口因素是济宁市乡村振兴发展的制约因素，加快补齐济宁市农村民生短板是其乡村发展的关键。

STUDY ON IDENTIFICATION AND EVALUATION OF DRIVING FACTORS FOR RURAL REVITALIZATION IN JINING CITY

Through the identification and study of rural revitalization driving factors in Jining city, the relationship between each driving factor and the degree of mutual influence is analyzed, and the driving factors are evaluated to provide scientific reference for the implementation of rural revitalization strategic planning in Jining city. In this paper, the DEMATE method and the entropy weight method were used to both qualitatively and quantitatively study the driving factors of rural revitalization in Jining city. In order to analyze the driving factors from subjective and objective points of view, two above-mentioned methods were combined. Among the driving factors studies herein, the value of leisure agricultural output had the greatest impact on the rural revitalization and development of Jining city. The per capita disposable income of rural residents was most affected by other driving factors. In general, the proportion of infrastructure investment, cultural industry expenditure, the number of migrant workers returning to their hometowns, the average education attainment, the value of leisure agricultural output, the investment in environmental protection, the per capita park green area, the natural gas penetration rate, and the number of township hospitals were nine important driving factors of the rural revitalization of Jining city. From the perspective of the outcome factors, the incidence of poverty, the number of rural employees, and the retail sales of per capita social consumer goods are more susceptible to other factors. Fully grasping the interrelationship among all important driving factors is the key to consolidate the benefits of rural revitalization in Jining; coordinating of the important driving factors correctly in the rural revitalization, combing their relationship is an important way to promote the rural development of Jining city; the population factor is the restrictive factor for the rural revitalization and development of Jining city, and speeding up the short board of rural people''s livelihood in Jining city is the key of its rural revitalization and development.