| 德州市降水及旱涝灾害变化趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 石慧兰,常 平,陈成国,杨玉霞,李正良.德州市降水及旱涝灾害变化趋势分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2012,33(3):23-27. |
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| 作者姓名： | 石慧兰 常 平 陈成国 杨玉霞 李正良 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东省德州市气象局,德州,253078 |
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| 摘 要： | 该文基于德州11县市1957～2009年降水量及全市范围内的所有旱涝灾害资料,分析了年降水量及旱涝灾害变化趋势,年平均降水量555.1mm,年降水量呈减少趋势,结果表明,平均每10年减少18.3mm。年平均旱灾2.5次,旱灾呈增加趋势,平均每10年增加0.235次,53年降水量与干旱次数的相关系数为-0.39,呈负相关。年平均涝灾2.5次,涝灾呈缓慢增加趋势,平均每10年增加0.05次,主要是由于特大暴雨等极端灾害性天气气候事件增加造成的,53年降水量与涝灾次数的相关系数为0.67,呈正相关。
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| 关 键 词： | 德州 降水量 旱灾 涝灾 变化趋势 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011/11/22 0:00:00 |
ANALYSIS OF CHANGE TRENDS IN PRECIPITATON AND DISASTERS OF DROUGHTS AND FLOODS IN DEZHOU CITY |
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| Shi Huilan,Chang Ping,Chen Chengguo,Yang Yuxia and Li Zhengliang.ANALYSIS OF CHANGE TRENDS IN PRECIPITATON AND DISASTERS OF DROUGHTS AND FLOODS IN DEZHOU CITY[J].Journal of China Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2012,33(3):23-27. |
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| Authors: | Shi Huilan Chang Ping Chen Chengguo Yang Yuxia and Li Zhengliang |
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| Institution: | (Bureau of Dezhou meteorology of Shandong province,Dezhou 253078) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the precipitation and all the disasters of droughts and floods in 11 counties in DeZhou from 1957 to 2009,this paper analyzed the trends of annual precipitation and disasters of droughts and floods.The results showed that the average rainfall was 555.1mm and showed a decreasing trend with a decrease of 18.3mm every 10 years.The annual drought disaster happened 2.5 times and showed an increase trend with an increase of 0.235 times every 10 years,the correlation coefficient between annual rainfall and droughts was-0.39.The annual flooding disaster happened 2.5 times and showed an increase trend with an increase of 0.05 times every 10 years due to extreme weather events increase.the correlation coefficient between annual rainfall and flooding was 0.67. |
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| Keywords: | Dezhou precipitation drought disaster flooding disaster change trend |
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