山东省土地流转的影响因素分析

该文根据2013年5月份山东省调研所获得的数据,选择probit回归模型,运用实证分析的方法对影响山东省农村土地流转的因素进行分析研究。研究结果表明：户主年龄以及受教育年限、是否参加医疗保险与养老保险、是否有家庭成员从事非农工作、农业劳动者数量、家庭耕地面积、耕地的细碎化程度以及非农收入所占比重这几个变量通过了显著性检验。其中,受教育程度高、农业劳动者数量较多以及现有耕地较多的农户,其转入农地的可能性较大;受教育程度高、参加社会保障、耕地细碎化程度低、有稳定的非农工作且非农收入比重较大的农户,更倾向于将自家农地转出。根据研究结果,在保持家庭经营制度稳定、维护农民种地积极性的基础上,提出提高农民的受教育程度、尊重农民的土地流转意愿、健全农村社会保障制度以及拓宽农民非农就业渠道等方面的相关对策建议。

THE INFLUENCE FACTORS OF FARMLAND TRANSFER in SHANDONG PROVINCE

Based on the large-scale peasant household survey data of Shandong province obtained in May 2013, this paper used the "Probit" model, which was one of the most probable regression model and an empirical analysis method, to study the factors influencing the rural land circulation. This results showed that there were several factors having the significant effects such as the householders' age and their level of education, whether to join in social security, whether to have a non-agricultural worker and the non-farm income's proportion, the number of laborers engaged in agriculture, the cultivated land they have, and the level of farmland fragmentation and so on. In addition, those families that had higher degree of education numbers, more agricultural laborers as well as lager cultivated land most likely wanted to transfer more farmlands, but the families with higher degree of education numbers, participating in social security, lower level of farmland fragmentation, more stable non-agricultural work and big non-farm income's proportion tended to transfer out their farmlands. According to the research results, the author put forward several countermeasures to promote the land circulation on the basis of keeping the stability of family business system and maintain the enthusiasm of peasant farming, which included improving the educational level of farmers, respecting the farmers' willingness of land circulation, improving the rural social security system and broadening the channel of the farmers employment.