内蒙古大豆秋季霜冻风险指数分析及灾害风险区划研究

目的 秋季霜冻是影响内蒙古大豆优质丰产的主要气象灾害之一，为了揭示内蒙古大豆秋季霜冻灾害风险的空间分布特征，科学合理布局大豆生产，减轻霜冻灾害造成的损失。方法 文章利用1981—2010年内蒙古119个气象站日最低气温、初霜冻发生日期，结合内蒙古不同地区大豆成熟期和种植面积资料，根据大豆生长发育对气象条件的要求，从霜冻灾害的危险性、脆弱性、敏感性和防灾减灾能力四个方面评估内蒙古大豆秋季霜冻灾害风险，并运用层次分析法确定4个因子对霜冻风险指数的贡献，建立内蒙古大豆秋季霜冻灾害综合风险指数模型并进行灾害风险区划。结果 从霜冻灾害综合风险指数来看，中、高风险区主要分布在大兴安岭北麓和阴山北麓偏南地区，是内蒙古自治区霜冻发生较早的地区，山地众多，霜冻发生强度频率较高，占全区总面积的36%。低风险区和较低风险区主要分布在东部偏南和西部地区，约占全区总面积的64%，主要原因是地势平坦、海拔较低，初霜冻发生日期相对延迟，有黄河和西辽河的经过，灌溉面积占耕地比例较高。结论 在气候变暖的大气候背景条件下，优化调整种植制度，在内蒙古东南部低风险区扩大优质大豆的种植面积，东北部高风险区应尽量选育和推广早熟抗寒品种，减轻霜冻带来的损失，助力国家大豆振兴计划，实现大豆稳产增收。

RESEARCH OF THE RISK INDEX OF DISASTER AND THE RISK ZONES OF THE AUTUMN FROST DISASTER OF SOYBEAN IN THE INNER MONGOLIA

Autumn frost is one of the main meteorological disasters affecting the high quality and high yield of soybeans in Inner Mongolia. In order to scientifically and rationally arrange soybean production for producers and reduce the damage caused by frost disaster for soybean, it was revealed spatial distribution characteristics about risk of autumn frost disaster for soybeans in Inner Mongolia. Using the daily minimum temperature of 119 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia from 1981 to 2010 and the date of the first frost occurrence, it was combined with the data of soybean maturity and planting area in different regions of Inner Mongolia. According to the requirement of the soybean growth to the meteorological conditions, the risk of autumn frost disaster of Inner Mongolia soybean was evaluated from the four aspects of frost disaster risk, vulnerability, sensitivity and ability of disaster prevention and reduction. The contribution of four factors to frost risk index was determined by analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The comprehensive risk index model of autumn frost disaster of Inner Mongolia soybean was established and the disaster risk division was carried out. As a result, about frost disaster comprehensive risk index, the middle and high risk areas were mainly distributed in the north of the Da Xinganling Mountains and the south of the North of the Yinshan Mountains. That was the region of mountainous area that frost occurred earlier, and frost intensity frequency was higher, accounting for 36 percent of the total area of the Inner Mongolia. The low-risk and the lower-risk areas accounted for about 64 percent of the total area of the whole region, mainly distributed in the south-eastern and western regions. The relatively low risk of soybean autumn frost was mainly due to the flat terrain and low altitude in this region. The date of the initial frost was relatively delayed and there were the Yellow River and the Xiliao River passing by there, the irrigated area accounted for a higher proportion of cultivated land. In summary, under the background of the warming climate, the cropping system can be appropriately adjusted to expand the cultivation area of high-quality soybean in southeastern of Inner Mongolia. In order to help the national soybean revitalization plan, and achieve stable soybean yield increase, the high risk areas should try their best to breed and promote early cold resistant varieties to reduce the loss caused by frost in the northeast.