生计资本和社会排斥：长江禁捕补偿政策对渔民生计影响机理研究

目的 渔民作为禁捕补偿政策的直接利益相关者，其生计问题直接关系到禁捕政策成效。探究长江禁捕补偿政策对渔民生计的作用机理，对推动实现长江生态保护和退捕渔民生计保障具有重要意义。方法 基于可持续生计理论和社会排斥理论，文章通过构建长江禁捕补偿政策背景下渔民生计结果的分析框架，利用江苏、安徽和湖北3省调研数据，采用偏微分最小二乘法的结构方程模型估算路径系数，测算长江禁捕补偿政策对生计结果的直接效应、间接效应和总效应。结果 从直接效应上看，政策对促进生计资本积累和生计结果改善有显著影响，对于抑制社会关系排斥和政治排斥有显著作用，但对就业排斥影响不显著；从间接效应上看，政策能够通过生计资本和社会排斥的中介作用对生计结果产生重要影响；从总效应上看，长江禁捕补偿政策的实施能够显著改善渔民的生计结果。结论 生计资本是渔民生计内生动力，对生计结果改善具有重要意义，须继续加大对生计资本建设力度；社会排斥是渔民生计发展的外部阻力，须促进社会融合，保障渔民政治、就业和社会关系等方面权利。

LIVELIHOOD CAPITAL AND SOCIAL EXCLUSION: A STUDY ON THE IMPACT MECHANISM OF THE FISHING BAN COMPENSATION POLICY ON FISHERMEN'S LIVELIHOODS IN THE YANGTZE RIVER

As direct stakeholders of the fishing ban compensation policy, the livelihood issues of fishermen are closely related to the effectiveness of the policy. It is important to investigate the impact mechanism of fishing ban compensation policy on fishermen''s livelihoods in the Yangtze River to promote the realization of ecological protection and livelihood security of retired fishermen. Based on sustainable livelihood theory and social exclusion theory, this paper constructed an analytical framework of fishermen''s livelihood results under the background of the Yangtze River fishing ban compensation policy, used the structural equation model based on partial differential least square method to estimate the path coefficient with the survey data of Jiangsu, Anhui and Hubei provinces, and measured the direct, indirect and total effects of the policy on the livelihood outcomes. The results were showed as follows. In terms of direct effects, the policy had a significant effects on promoting livelihood capital accumulation and improving livelihood outcomes, and on suppressing social and political exclusion, but not on suppressing employment exclusion; in terms of indirect effects, the policy had a significant effects on livelihood outcomes through the mediation of livelihood capital and social exclusion; in terms of total effects, the implementation of the Yangtze River fishing ban compensation policy could significantly improve the livelihood outcomes of fishermen. In summary, livelihood capital is the endogenous driving force of fishermen''s livelihood, which is of great significance to the improvement of livelihood outcome. It is important to continue to strengthen the construction of livelihood capital, social exclusion is the external resistance to the development of fishermen''s livelihood. It is necessary to promote social integration and protect fishermen''s rights in politics, employment and social relations.