1998—2018年中国城镇化发展与耕地压力动态关系研究

目的 利用1998—2018年中国大陆31个省（自治区、直辖市）的面板数据，文章系统考察了近20年中国粮食主产区、产销平衡区和主销区城镇化发展与其耕地压力的动态变化规律。方法 借助协整理论和脉冲响应函数检验城镇化发展与耕地压力之间的长期稳定均衡关系与短期动态变化。结果 （1）中国城镇化发展水平从1998年的35.55%上升到2018年的61.82%，整体呈增长态势，但3类粮食产销区的城镇化发展水平却存在较明显差异。2018年粮食主销区的城镇化水平已达74.6%，明显高于产销平衡区的51.88%和主产区的58.98%。（2）中国耕地压力指数呈快速增长—缓和波动增长—加速增长三阶段特征，且主销区耕地压力指数从1.22增加至19.39，耕地压力形势严峻；产销平衡区由1.21增加至2.08，已面临一定程度的耕地压力；而粮食主产区则由0.73降低到0.65，尚处于耕地压力安全区。（3）城镇化发展与耕地压力存在一定的长期均衡关系，但在3类粮食产销区具有差异性的表现特征。结论 研究认为应根据3类粮食产销区的实际耕地压力状态及其与城镇化发展的动态关系，分区域制定差别化的耕地保护政策和城镇化发展策略。

STUDY ON TNE DYNAMIC RALATIONASHIP BETWEEN URBANIZATION DEVELOPMENT AND CULTIVATED LAND PRESSURE IN CNINA FROM 1998 TO 2018

Based on co-integration theory and impulse response analysis, this study used panel data of China''s 31 provinces(autonomous regions and cities) from 1998 to 2018 to probe and compare the dynamics of urbanization and cultivated land pressure in major grain-producing areas, grain producing-consuming balance areas and major gain-consuming areas. The results were indicated as follows. Firstly, the urbanization level in the 31 provinces (autonomous regions and cities) showed an overall upward trend, increasing from 35.55% in 1998 to 61.82% in 2018, while obvious differences among the three types of were observed. In 2018, the urbanization level in major gain-consuming areas reached 74.6%, significantly higher than that in major grain-producing areas (51.88% ) and grain producing-consuming balance areas (58.98%). Secondly, the dynamics of cultivated land pressure index was characterized with three stages: rapid growth, moderately fluctuated growth, and accelerated growth. The major gain-consuming areas suffered a high, with the pressure index increasing from 1.22 to 19.39. The cultivated land pressure in producing-consuming balance areas was also challenging, and the grain producing-consuming balance areas faced a certain degree of cultivated land pressure, with the pressure index increasing from 1.21 to 2.08. In contrast, major grain-producing areas were still in a safety zone with the pressure index decreasing from 0.73 to 0.65 in 2018. Finally, urbanization and cultivated land pressure in China kept a long-term equilibrium, but the situations of the three types of areas differed greatly. Therefore, different cultivated land protection policies and urbanization strategies should be formulated according to the dynamics of urbanization and cultivated land pressure in different areas.