河南省水—能源—粮食—土地系统耦合协调性研究

目的 探究河南省土地利用变化对区域水—能源—粮食—土地系统耦合协调性的影响。方法 文章通过构建水—能源—粮食—土地系统耦合协调发展评价指标体系，运用熵值法、耦合协调模型对2010—2020年河南省18个地市水—能源—粮食系统纳入土地子系统前后耦合协调性发展的变化进行研究，并运用ArcGIS分析土地利用变化对区域耦合协调度空间分布的影响。结果 （1）土地子系统的加入使河南省各地市水—能源—粮食—土地系统的耦合度C值整体变化幅度减小，耦合协调度D值的时序变化曲线聚集程度提高，各地市耦合协调度变化路径更加统一。（2）随着土地子系统的加入，河南省各地市水—能源—粮食—土地系统耦合协调等级变化混乱程度明显降低，所带来的影响初期以负向为主，随后正负影响互相抵消，出现大量维持原有等级不变的现象，后期正向影响凸显。（3）土地子系统的加入使河南省各地市耦合协调等级的空间变化更加有序，协调类等级的分布重心实现了从东部到西部的平稳过渡且分布范围不断扩大；失调类等级所占比例逐渐缩小，各地市水—能源—粮食—土地系统耦合协调性普遍提升。结论 土地的合理利用可以提高区域水—能源—粮食—土地系统耦合协调程度，促进区域可持续发展。

STUDY ON THE COUPLING COORDINATION OF WATER-ENERGY- FOOD-LAND SYSTEM IN HENAN PROVINCE

To explore the impact of land use change on the coupling and coordination of regional water-energy-food-land system in Henan province. By constructing an evaluation index system of water-energy-grain-land coupling and coordinated development, the entropy method and coupled coordination model were used to study the coupling and coordinated development changes of water-energy-food system before and after it was incorporated into the land subsystem in 18 cities in Henan province from 2010 to 2020, and used ArcGIS to analyze the impact of land use change on the spatial distribution of regional coupling coordination. The results showed that: (1) The addition of land subsystem reduced the overall change amplitude of the C value of the coupling degree of water-energy-food-land system in various cities in Henan province, the aggregation degree of the temporal series change curve of the D value of the coupling coordination degree increases, and the change path of the coupling coordination degree of various cities was more uniform. (2) With the addition of the land subsystem, the chaos of the coupling and coordination level of water-energy-food-land system in various cities in Henan province had been significantly reduced, and the impact would be mainly negative in the early stage, and then the positive and negative effects would cancel each other, and a large number of phenomena would remain unchanged in the original level, and the positive impact will be highlighted in the later stage. (3) The addition of the land subsystem made the spatial change of the coupling coordination grade in various cities in Henan province more orderly, and the distribution center of the coordination class level realized a smooth transition from east to west, and the distribution range continued to expand. The proportion of imbalance levels gradually decreased, and the coupling coordination of water-energy-food-land systems in various cities generally improved. The rational use of land can improve the coupling and coordination of regional water-energy-food-land system and promote regional sustainable development.