京津冀畜牧业碳排放效率时空演变特征及影响因素分析

目的 研究京津冀畜牧业碳排放效率的时空演变特征，明晰畜牧业碳排放效率影响因素，促进畜牧业低碳可持续发展。方法 文章基于2000—2020年京津冀13市的面板数据，运用超效率EBM模型、空间自相关分析、空间计量模型等方法，对畜牧业碳排放效率的时空演变规律和影响因素进行探讨。结果 （1）2000—2020年京津冀畜牧业碳排放效率均值由0.45增长至0.88，整体水平不断提升，地区之间的碳排放效率差异呈现缩小趋势。（2）2000—2020年京津冀畜牧业碳排放效率呈现由“低值区集中连片，高值区分散”的格局向“高值区集中连片”的布局过渡的趋势，且相异空间集聚程度逐渐减弱。（3）乡村从业人员文化程度、畜牧业碳排放强度分别为当地碳排放效率的主要驱动与抑制因素，城镇化水平和乡村从业人员文化程度能改善邻近区域碳排放效率值。饲料用量、畜牧业技术进步、畜牧业产业结构、城镇化水平对碳排放效率的阻碍作用逐步显著加强；畜牧业经济发展水平和科技政策对其的驱动作用逐步显著加强。畜牧业经济发展水平和畜牧业产业结构对邻近区域碳排放效率的负向影响逐步显著加强。结论 京津冀畜牧业碳排放效率有一定的提升空间，各地区要因地制宜并加强区域合作，推动畜牧业低碳高效发展。

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION CHARACTERISTICS AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF CARBON EMISSION EFFICIENCY OF ANIMAL HUSBANDRY IN BEIJING-TIANJIN-HEBEI REGION

This paper aims to study the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of carbon emission efficiency of livestock industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, clarify the influencing factors of carbon emission efficiency of livestock industry, and promote the low-carbon sustainable development of livestock industry. Based on the panel data of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2020, the spatial and temporal evolution rules and influencing factors of carbon emission efficiency in animal husbandry were discussed by using the super-efficiency EBM model, spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial econometric model. The results showed that (1) From 2000 to 2020, the average carbon emission efficiency of livestock industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei increased from 0.45 to 0.88, with the overall level continuously improving, and the difference of carbon emission efficiency between regions showed a decreasing trend. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the carbon emission efficiency of livestock husbandry in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei showed a transition trend from the pattern of "low-value areas concentrated and contiguous, high-value areas dispersed" to the pattern of "high-value areas concentrated and contiguous", and the degree of spatial agglomeration of different areas gradually weakened. (3) The education level of rural employees and carbon emission intensity of animal husbandry was the main driving and inhibiting factors of local carbon emission efficiency, respectively. The urbanization level and the education level of rural employees could improve the carbon emission efficiency of neighboring regions. The effects of feed consumption, technological progress of animal husbandry, industrial structure of animal husbandry and urbanization level on carbon emission efficiency were gradually strengthened. The economic development level of animal husbandry and the driving effect of science and technology policy on animal husbandry were gradually and significantly strengthened. The negative effects of the economic development level of animal husbandry and the industrial structure of animal husbandry on the carbon emission efficiency of neighboring regions were gradually and significantly strengthened. In conclusion, there is room to improve the carbon emission efficiency of livestock industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. All regions should adapt to local conditions and strengthen regional cooperation to promote the low-carbon and efficient development of livestock industry.