长江中下游粮食主产区城镇化与耕地利用生态效率耦合协调度时空格局分析

目的 探究长江中下游粮食主产区城镇化与耕地利用生态效率两者间的耦合协调发展时空特征，为新型城镇化和生态文明建设提供理论支持。方法 文章基于城镇化与耕地利用生态效率的内涵及耦合机理，采用多因素综合分析法及SBM-DEA模型，测度长江中下游粮食主产区71个地级市城镇综合指数与耕地利用生态效率，并引入耦合协调度模型及空间自相关模型探究两者间耦合协调度及时空演化规律。结果 （1）长江中下游粮食主产区城镇综合指数整体呈显著上升趋势，由2007年的8.11增加至2019年的16.10，平均增速达6.50%；年均耕地利用生态效率为0.70，整体呈现小幅波动下降的趋势，年均耕地利用生态效率表现为江苏>江西>湖北>安徽>湖南；（2）城镇化水平与耕地利用生态效率耦合协调度整体呈波动上升趋势，由2007年的0.21提高至2019年的0.40，但两者暂未步入协调阶段；（3）城镇化水平与耕地利用生态效率耦合协调度在地理空间上存在空间正相关性，且相关性程度逐渐增强，其中高—高集聚区主要分布于长江中下游粮食主产区的东部地区，而低—低集聚区则主要分布于长江中下游的西部地区，且随着时间变迁，该集聚格局呈逐步扩大态势。结论 应有序推进城镇化发展，强化耕地绿色发展理念，并统筹区域协调发展，积极构建邻近市域之间的合作机制，推动城镇化与耕地生态环境的协调发展。

ANALYSIS ON THE SPATIOTEMPORAL PATTERN OF COUPLINRG DEGREE OF URBANIZATION AND CULTIVATED LAND USE ECO-EFFICIENCY IN MAIN GRAIN PRODUCING AREAS IN THE MID AND LOWER REACHES IN YANGTZE RIVER

The purpose of this study is to explore the temporal and spatial characteristics of the coupling and coordinated development of urbanization and cultivated land use ecological efficiency in the main grain production areas of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and to provide theoretical support for the construction of new urbanization and ecological civilization. Based on the connotation and coupling mechanism of urbanization and cultivated land use eco-efficiency, the multi-factor comprehensive analysis method and SBM-DEA model was used to measure the urban comprehensive index and cultivated land use eco-efficiency of 71 prefecture-level cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. And the coupling coordination degree model and the spatial autocorrelation model was adopted to analyze the coupling coordination degree and space-time evolution characteristics. The research were showed as follows. (1) The urban comprehensive index of the main grain producing areas in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River showed a significant upward trend, increasing from 8.11 in 2007 to 16.10 in 2019, with an average growth rate of 6.50%. The average annual ecological efficiency of cultivated land use was 0.70, showing a trend of slight fluctuation and decline. The average annual ecological efficiency of cultivated land use was Jiangsu> Jiangxi> Hubei> Anhui> Hunan. (2) The coupling coordination degree of urbanization level and cultivated land use ecological efficiency showed a fluctuating upward trend, from 0.21 in 2007 to 0.40 in 2019, but the two had not yet entered the coordination stage. (3) There was a positive spatial correlation between the level of urbanization and the ecological efficiency of cultivated land use, and the degree of correlation was gradually increasing. Among them, high-high agglomeration areas were mainly distributed in the eastern part of the main grain production areas in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. And low-low agglomeration was mainly distributed in the western region of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and with the change of time, the agglomeration pattern was gradually expanding. Therefore, we should promote the development of urbanization orderly, strengthen the concept of green development of cultivated land, coordinate regional development and actively build the cooperation mechanism between neighboring cities, so as to promote the coordinated development of urbanization and cultivated land ecological environment.