中国农业资源错配的测算、时空演变特征及影响因素分析

目的 探究中国农业生产要素错配的时空演变特征及其影响因素，为改善要素空间错配，提高农业生产效率提供相关参考和政策建议。方法 文章以资源错配理论为基础构建农业资源错配指数测算框架，选取2000—2019年中国30个省（市、自治区，不含港澳台和西藏）的经济数据测算出农业资本错配指数、劳动力错配指数、土地错配指数以及相关影响因素指标，采用空间计量模型分析其对农业资源错配的影响。结果 （1）农业资本错配、劳动力错配和土地错配在时空上分别展现出不同的演变发展特征，但都呈现出要素错配不断改善的趋势。（2）从实证结果来看，农业经营规模的提高能够显著改善农业资本错配和土地错配，农业种植结构升级能够有效改善农业劳动力错配和土地错配，政府的宏观调控能够有效改善农业资本错配，同时提高农村金融发展水平是改善农业资本错配一种重要方式。（3）区域经济发展水平提高能够通过促进农业生产要素重新组合来改善农业资本错配和劳动力错配，城镇化发展水平提高能够改善劳动力错配和土地错配。结论 中国农业生产要素在不同区域的错配程度在不断改善，农业经营规模、种植结构和经济发展水平是影响要素错配的关键因素，消除要素流动障碍，完善区域联动机制是改善要素错配的重要方式。

ANALYSIS ON THE ESTIMATION, SPACE-TIME EVOLUTION CHARACTERISTICS AND FACTORS OF CHINESE AGRICULTURAL MISALLOCATION

This paper aims to explore the space-time evolution characteristics and factors of misallocation of Chinese agricultural production, so as to provide relevant reference and recommendation on policy for improving the spatial misallocation and advance the efficiency of agricultural production. The frame of evaluating agricultural misallocation index was constructed on the basis of misallocation theory. We adopted economic data of 30 provinces (cities and autonomous regions) in China from 2000 to 2019 to compute the index of misallocation of agricultural capital, labor and land as well as relevant factors. Also, we utilized spatial econometric models to analyze its influence on agricultural misallocation. The results were listed as follows. Misallocation of agricultural capital, labor and land exhibited different evolution characteristics in both time and space perspectives, nevertheless, they all revealed a same trend of continuous improvement. According to the empirical results, the increase of the scale of agriculture operations could substantially ameliorate misallocation of both agricultural capital and labor. Upgraded agricultural planting structures could effectively facilitate misallocation of both labor and land. Additionally, macro-controls by the government effectively improved misallocation of both agricultural capitals. Meanwhile, enhancing rural financial development was another crucial way to improve misallocation of agricultural capital. By promoting the recombination of agricultural production factors, which could improve misallocation of both agricultural capital and labor, the regional economic development can stimulate. Besides, with the development of urbanization, the misallocation of labor and land can be reduced. The misallocation of factors of Chinese agricultural production among various regions is constantly ameliorating. It is noted that the scale of agricultural operation, planting structure and economic development are the key factors affecting the misallocation of factors, and eliminating barriers to the flow of factors and improving regional connectivity mechanisms are critical approaches to resolve this kind of misallocation.