区域休闲农业旅游开发的风险评价——以浙江省为例

风险是区域休闲农业旅游开发不可回避与亟待探究的问题。为深化区域休闲农业旅游开发风险的认识与实践,研究以休闲农业旅游开发较为成熟的典型地浙江省为案例,运用数据包络与因子分析方法,在对区域休闲农业旅游开发当前效率与未来潜力进行评价与分析的基础上,借助合图法以效率与潜力为聚类指标,通过两者比较对浙江省休闲农业旅游开发风险进行整体分析和评价,并将其划分为休闲农业旅游低风险积极开发、较低风险适宜开发、一般风险适度开发和较高风险整合开发等4类区域。最后,总结浙江省休闲农业旅游开发风险特征为:(1)开发风险与区域经济发展水平和区位优势条件存在明显的相关关系;(2)区域间经济社会相关联系程度影响开发风险分布方向;(3)开发水平在空间上存在较强的收敛性特征,并从中提炼出明确区域休闲农业旅游开发方向、营造良好区域交流与合作环境和构建区域休闲农业旅游开发风险协同管理机制等开发风险规避策略。

THE RISK ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL LEISURE AGRICULTURE TOURISM DEVELOPMENT*---A CASE STUDY OF ZHEJIANG PROVINCE

In the development of regional leisure agriculture, the risk was unavoidable and should be conquered. To analyze the risk in the regional leisure agriculture development objectively, this study chose Zhejiang province as a case and used the Data Envelopment Analysis and Factor Analysis methods to establish the regional leisure agri-culture development efficiency and potential assessment system, and then analyzed the condition of leisure agricul-ture in Zhejiang province, the results showed that: Firstly, from the point of development efficiency, the overall level of regional leisure agriculture development efficiency was low and the indicators had large regional differences, at the same time, the efficiency level of the overall showed a trend of decreasing from north to south; Secondly, from the point of development potential, the potential in the regional leisure agriculture development was at a low level and the regional difference was quite large, what′s more, there was a clear correlation between the potential index on the space and the level of the regional social economic development. On this basis, with the aid of Co-plot method and efficiency of the clustering index, the risks of leisure agriculture development in Zhejiang province were divided into lower risk-positive development area, low risk-appropriate development area, general risk-moderate development area, and high risk-integrated development area. And this study further induced the char-acteristics of risks in the regional development of leisure agriculture:①There existed obvious correlation in the risk of regional leisure agriculture development, regional economic development level, and location advantage condi-tions;②the regional economic and social contact impacted the distribution of leisure agriculture development; ③there were strong convergence characteristics in the regional leisure agriculture development. Finally, the research put forward regional strategy to avoid the risk of leisure agriculture development in the future.