粮食虚拟水流动对水资源和区域经济的影响研究

目的]通过省际粮食虚拟水流动分析,探讨其对水资源和区域经济的影响,以期为保障我国粮食安全和水安全提供有益借鉴。方法]以我国31个省(市、自治区)为研究单元,通过引入距离分量对2006、2015年我国省际粮食虚拟水贸易的空间分布格局及驱动因素进行解析,在此基础上评价虚拟水贸易所引起的生态效应和经济价值变化。结果]结果表明:近年来我国省际粮食虚拟水流动更加频繁,整体表现出由北向南的逆向流动格局,但输出省份的范围呈萎缩状态,部分输出区已转变为输入区,有近50%的输出省份虚拟水输出量大幅下降,虚拟水输出有进一步向黑龙江等产粮大省集中的趋势;水资源并非是影响虚拟水贸易最关键的因素,耕地资源禀赋、资源优化配置以及经济发展水平对虚拟水的影响作用也是不容忽视的;2015年粮食虚拟水流动在国家层面上共形成276亿m3的节水量,对国内经济增长的贡献份额达到2.836 6万亿元,但虚拟水的输出使输出区水资源压力指数由0.84(假设输出区粮食虚拟水输出为0)上升到1.20,地区生产总值由42.675 9万亿元(假设用于输出的粮食虚拟水全部转变为工业用水和服务业用水)减少到28.597 4万亿元。结论]省际粮食虚拟水流动在国家尺度上有节水和促进经济发展的作用,但对输出区有较大的破坏作用,输出区存在将粮食生产用水转变为其他高收益产业用水的可能,针对以上结果提出解决我国粮食虚拟水流动负面效应的相关建议。

THE EFFECT OF VIRTUAL FLOW OF GRAIN ON WATER RESOUECES AND REGIONAL ECONOMY

This paper explored the influence of the interprovincial virtual water flow analysis on water resources and regional economy, in order to provide useful reference for the security of grain and water safety in China.The spatial distribution pattern and driving factors of China''s inter provincial virtual water trade were analyzed by introducing distance components to 31 provinces (cities and autonomous regions) in China. On this basis, the ecological effects and economic value changes caused by the virtual water trade were evaluated. The results showed that the flow of virtual water in interprovincial grain was more frequent in recent years, and the reverse flow pattern from north to south was shown as a whole, but the scope of the output provinces was shrinking, and some output areas had been transformed into input areas. The output of virtual water in nearly 50% of the provinces had fallen sharply, and the output of virtual water was further concentrated. Water resources were not the most important factors affecting the virtual water trade in Heilongjiang and other large grain producing provinces. The influence of cultivated land resources, resources optimization and economic development level on virtual water can not be ignored. In 2015, the virtual water flow of grain formed a total of 27 billion 600 million m3 of water saving at the national level. The share of contribution to domestic economic growth reached 28366 billion yuan, but the output of virtual water increased the water resource pressure index of the output area from 0.84 (the output area of grain virtual water 0) to 1.20, and the GDP was reduced from 426759 billion yuan (assuming the whole part of the output of grain virtual water changed to industrial water and service water) to 285974 billion yuan. The interprovincial virtual water flow had the function of saving water and promoting economic development on the national scale, but it had a great damage role on the output area. The output area would change the water of grain production into other high income industrial water.