黔东南山地生态农业发展评价及预测研究

目的]对2012~2016年黔东南州山地生态农业发展做出评价,并预测其2018~2027年的发展情况,以期了解黔东南地区农业可持续发展能力及未来趋势的变化规律。方法]以黔东南及贵州《2013~2017年统计年鉴》为数据来源,通过构建评价指标体系,利用层次分析法及加权评分法对2012~2016年山地生态农业发展做出评价;并运用灰色模型,借助Matlab工具,对黔东南山地生态农业发展做出预测。结果]2010~2016年黔东南州山地生态农业的经济、生态、社会效益处于发展上升阶段,协调度良好,但生态效益发展最低,其中2015年经济、社会、生态系统可持续发展良好,但由于持续保护,2016年出现生态保护过度,经济和综合效益下降现象,因此发展模式有待于向发展经济和社会效益方面倾斜;黔东南州山地生态农业在2018~2027年将会处于发展上升阶段,但其发展缓慢,仍存在一定限制因素。结论]政府应积极调整农业产业结构,转变农业发展思路,可将部分生态农业与旅游相结合,发挥区位特色的同时,提升品牌的知名度。加大力度引导农业园区和重点产业的发展,推进农业农村改革试点的运行,加大新型农人的培育,促进高效、现代、特色生态农业的发展。

EVALUATION AND PREDICTION OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN ECOLOGICAL AGRICULTURE IN QIANDONGNAN

With the data source of Statistical Yearbook of 2013~2017 in Qiandongnan Prefecture as the source of data, this paper evaluated the development of mountainous ecological agriculture in Qiandongnan Prefecture from 2012 to 2016 by using the analytic hierarchy process and weighted scoring method, and forecasted its development from 2018 to 2027 using the gray model and the MATLAB tool, in order to know the change of agricultural sustainable development ability and future trend in southeast Guizhou province. The results showed that the economic, ecological and social benefits of the mountainous ecological agriculture in Qiandongnan Prefecture during 2010~2016 were in the stage of ascendance and development. The coordination was good but the ecological benefit was the lowest. The economy, society and ecosystem were sustainable development in 2015, but because the ecological protection was overdone in 2016, the economic and comprehensive benefits declined. Therefore, it needed to pay more attention to economic and social benefits. The mountainous ecological agriculture in Qiandongnan Prefecture would be in a rising stage in 2018~2027. However, there were still some restrictions. The government should actively adjust the structure of the agricultural industry and change the ideas for agricultural development. Some ecological agriculture and tourism can be combined to give full play to the location characteristics and enhance brand awareness. More efforts should be intensified to guide the development of agricultural parks and key industries, promote the operation of agricultural and rural reform pilots, increase the cultivation of new farmers, and promote the development of efficient, modern, and characteristic ecological agriculture.