基于钻石模型的奶粉国际竞争力分析

随着经济社会发展,近年来我国乳品加工业取得较快发展,其中奶粉生产、消费均呈现出更快增长态势。但是,在奶粉贸易市场上,我国进口奶粉却逐渐扩大,出口奶粉处于低位。针对奶粉净进口量呈扩大趋势的热点问题,运用奶粉国际市场占率、贸易竞争指数及竞争优势指数进行测算,结果发现中国奶粉与新西兰、欧盟等世界主要奶业强国在国际竞争上存在较大的差距,且近年来竞争力有继续下降的趋势。新西兰在奶粉竞争力处于一家独大的优势,无论是国际市场占有率、贸易竞争指数及显示性竞争优势指数,均处于领先地位。法国、德国、澳大利亚等国在国际上还保有一定的竞争地位,但由于市场份额被新西兰等国挤占,近年来有逐步下滑态势。面对这一严峻形势,运用波特的钻石竞争理论,从资源因素、需求条件、辅助产业、企业战略及政策带来的机遇、挑战等方面进行比较,对中国奶粉不具有国际竞争力进行原因分析。总的来看,中国奶粉需求增长潜力大,但限于资源紧缺,奶源生产增长压力大,国外奶粉生产国生产成本明显低于国内,奶粉面临国际市场的竞争力较大。最后,提出挖掘奶源生产潜力,根据区域不同资源禀赋,找出适合的养殖模式,充分利用资源,提高生产效率;要重新建立消费信心,通过奶业品牌的建立与质量安全监管,增强消费信心;还要充分利用好"两个市场与两种资源",鼓励奶粉加工企业走出去引进来,从交流合作中提升自身竞争力;同时,要尊重市场规律,把握贸易政策调控等力度;最终实现提高我国奶粉的国际竞争力目的,让中国人的奶瓶子掌握在中国人自己手里。

ANALYSIS OF MILK POWDER INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS BASED ON DIAMOND MODEL

With the economic and social development in recent years, dairy industry of China has made a rapid development especially the milk production and consumption. However, in the milk powder trade market, the import of milk powder in China has gradually expanded, and the export of milk is lower than before. Focusing on the problems of the expansion trend of the net imports, this paper chose over 10 dairy developed countries as a comparison object such as New Zealand, Australia, Germany, the Netherlands and United States etc., and computed the World Market Share(WMS), Trade Competitiveness Index(TC) and Competition Advantage Index(CA) of milk powder. It found that there was a huge gap between China and others countries.The competitiveness showed a downward trend in recent years. New Zealand was in a dominant competitive advantage in the international market of milk powder with a leading position of the competitiveness in the international market share, trade competitiveness index and competitive advantage index. France, Germany, Australia and other countries in the world still maintained a competitive position, but had gradually declined because the market share was diverted by New Zealand in recent years. Based on the situation, this paper analyzed the reasons of the China''s milk powder lacking of the international competitiveness through the comparisons of the resource factors, the demand conditions, the supporting industries, the business strategy and the policy opportunities, challenges, and so on, using Porter''s Diamond theory of competition. The results showed that in general, China milk powder had a huge demand growth potential, but the production cost of raw milk was significantly higher than foreign milk powder due to the limited resources, and it faced a larger challenge in the international market competitiveness. Finally, it provided some suggestions to improve the potential of the milk production and the milk powder international competitiveness, such as finding suitable breeding patterns depending on the resource endowments area, making full use of resources to improve production efficiency, establishing the dairy brands and strengthening the quality and safety supervision to enhance consumer confidence, making full use of the "two markets and two resources" to encourage the introduction of milk processing enterprises to go to improve their competitiveness from the exchange and cooperation, and respecting the laws of the market, regulatory and other efforts to grasp trade policy etc.