江苏沿海耕地-粮食-人口复合系统动态变化与耕地压力分区分析

该文在分析江苏沿海1999～2007年耕地-粮食-人口复合系统动态变化的基础上,计算其3区14县(市)耕地压力指数(K)并划定耕地压力分区,以进一步分析K值区域变化特点及其原因。研究结果表明:(1)1999～2007年江苏沿海耕地面积波动减少,人口持续增长,人均耕地面积不断减少,粮食总产量及人均粮食产量开始阶段持续降低,并在2003年跌入低谷,至2007年有所回升。(2)根据耕地压力分区结果,从江苏沿海整体分析,K值呈现2003年大于2007年大于1999年的特点;从区域地市级分析,K值大致上呈现南通沿海大于连云港沿海大于盐城沿海的特点;具体到各县(市、区)耕地资源承受压力变化,东海县等7个县K值持续最小,南通市区和连云港市区K值持续最大,盐城市区等4个县、区2003年K值较1999年大幅增加但至2007年已回落,通州市等3市K值较大且呈增加趋势,赣榆县K值变化幅度最大。文章最后还探讨了江苏沿海不同区域的耕地-粮食-人口调控措施。

Analysis on Dynamic Changes of Cultivated Land-Grain -Population Complex System and Cultivated Land Pressure Regionalization in the Coastal Region of Jiangsu Province

Based on the analysis of dynamic changes of cultivated land-grain-population complex system between 1999 and 2007,this paper calculated the pressure index of cultivated land of 3 districts and 14 counties(or county-level cities) in the coastal region of Jiangsu Province,and divided it into four regions to further analyze its characters and driving factors.Results showed that: during the year of 1999~2007,area of cultivated land fluctuated in a decreased way,while the population kept on increasing,so the area of cultivated land per capita decreased continuously.The total grain yield and per capita grain yield decreased in the beginning and hit a low point in 2003,then increased in 2007;the pressure index of cultivated land(K value) showed the features of 2003 > 2007 > 1999 when analyzing the coastal region of Jiangsu Province as a whole.The K value showed the charicteristics of Nantong coastal region > Lianyungang > Yancheng when analyzing the characteristics of cities When making a concrete analysis of the counties(county-level cities,districts),the K value in seven counties,such as Donghai county,was kept in a lowest level,while Nantong and Lianyungang districts were the largest.The other four counties and districts,such as Yancheng district,rose with a big margin between 1999 and 2003,and then rolled back in 2007.Three county-level cities,such as Tongzhou tended to increase.The variation scope of Ganyu county was the largest.Finally,the paper discussed about measures for controlling cultivated land-grain-population complex system in different coastal regions of Jiangsu Province.