自然风险对农户技术采用行为的影响——以荔枝为例

目的]由于近年来台风灾害、高温干旱、低温冷害、阴雨天等异常气候对荔枝产量、品质造成了不可低估的损失,有必要研究农户荔枝生产中应对自然灾害的防灾减灾技术的采用情况及其影响因素。方法]通过对荔枝主产区广东、广西、海南的257荔枝种植户的入户调查,运用二元选择模型实证分析自然风险对农户采用荔枝间伐、高接换种、水肥药一体化技术行为的影响。结果]农户间伐技术采用率最高,其次为高接换种技术,水肥药一体化技术采用率最低;广东省一半以上的农户采用了间伐技术,广西间伐技术采用率次之为39.0%,而海南省仅15.2%的农户实施了间伐;广西一半以上的农户采用了高接换种技术,而广东省采用率为34.0%,海南省农户基本没有采用高接换种技术;水肥药一体化技术采用率由高到低依次为广东、海南、广西。结论]是否受灾与影响农户是否采用高接换种技术显著正相关;受灾减产比例与农户是否采用间伐技术、高接换种技术呈反比;地区虚拟变量与农户是否采用间伐技术、水肥药一体化技术显著负相关。

THE IMPACT OF NATURAL RISK ON FARMERS' BEHAVIOUR OF TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION——AN EXAMPLE OF LITCHI

The loss of grain yield and quality of litchi was great due to abnormal climate such as the typhoon disasters,high temperature and drought, low temperature chilling injury, and heavy storm.So it is necessary to study farmers′ production technology adoption in response to the natural disasters.Through the survey of 257 farmers in the main production area of litchi in Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan,the paper analyzed the impact of natural risk on farmers technology adoption behaviour,such as litchi thinning,grafting, water and medicine integration technology by using the binary choice model.The results showed that the adoption rate of thinning technology was the highest, followed by high grafting technology, water and medicine integration technology.More than half farmers used thinning technology in Guangdong province.The thinning technology adoption rates in Guangxi and Hainan were 39.0% and 15.2%.More than half farmers in Guangxi adopted high grafting technology, which was 34.0% in Guangdong and 0 in Hainan province.The adoption rate of water and fertilizer drugs integration technology from high to low in turn was Guangdong, Hainan and Guangxi.It concluded that there was significantly positive correlation between whether be disaster and adopting the grafting technique.It showed a negative correlation between the disaster proportion and using thinning and grafting techniques.