社会经济及气象因素对水稻产量的影响研究——以三江平原为例

目的 系统分析三江平原水稻产量的影响因素，对指导三江平原农业生产和耕地保护及减少未来粮食安全风险具有现实意义。方法 文章利用1988—2018年三江平原水稻产量、气象观测和社会经济数据，结合利用经济学模型——柯布-道格拉斯生产函数和统计学方法Lasso回归模型，分别分析社会经济因素和自然因素对三江平原水稻产量的影响。结果 （1）在社会经济因素方面，单位面积农村用电量和农业科研经费投入的单位面积增产效应比较明显，单位面积劳动力投入和化肥施用量对水稻产量具有负效应。（2）在自然因素方面，生长季内平均最低气温和平均日照时数对水稻产量有正向影响，生长季内总降水量和平均日相对湿度对水稻产量有负向影响。结论 为水稻生产提供政策建议： 可以通过合理施肥、加大机械化和农业科技创新的投入来提升水稻产量。同时，适当人工增加光照时间和加强冻害防治对提高水稻产量也具有重要意义。

THE INFLUENCE OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS AND METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS ON RICE YIELD: A CASE STUDY OF SANJIANG PLAIN

A systematic analysis of the influencing factors on rice yield in Sanjiang Plain is of practical significance to guide agricultural production, cultivate land protection and reduce the risk of food security in the future. Based on rice yield, meteorological observations and socio-economic data, using economics model called Cobb-Douglas production function and statistical methods called Lasso regression, this research analyzed the affecting factors of the rice yield in Sanjiang Plain from 1988 to 2018. The results showed that: (1) In terms of socio-economic factors, chemical fertilizer application had negative effects, and rural power consumption per unit area and investment in agricultural scientific research funds per unit area had a positive effect on rice yield. (2) In terms of natural factors, the average minimum temperature and average sunshine hours in the growing season had a positive impact on rice yield, and the total precipitation and average daily relative humidity in the growing season had a negative impact on rice yield. The results can provide an important scientific basis for rice production. Through rational fertilization, investment in mechanization and technological innovation, we can improve rice production capacity and increase rice yield. At the same time, it is also of great significance to increase the light time and strengthen the prevention of freezing injury.