滇中城市群经济发展水平与资源环境承载力的脱钩分析

目的]探讨经济发展水平与资源环境承载力之间的脱钩关系是实现地域经济又好又快发展的重要前提。方法]基于脱钩理论和方法,结合经济发展水平与资源环境承载力之间的内在关联,构建出刻画系统间变化特征及相互作用关系的指标体系,对2006~2014年滇中城市群经济发展水平与资源环境承载力的脱钩程度、脱钩类型及脱钩的时序变化和空间格局演变趋势进行研究。结果]研究表明:(1)滇中城市群整体的经济发展水平与资源环境承载力经历了强脱钩-弱脱钩-扩张负脱钩-强脱钩,脱钩指数呈现出"M"型波动变化趋势、剪刀差经历"V"型变化;(2)滇中城市群各州市经济发展水平与资源环境承载力脱钩程度及时序呈现波动变化,强脱钩状态占整个研究期的37.5%,且脱钩指数均在T6(2011~2012)或T7时期(2012~2013)达到最高值,脱钩程度及空间格局呈现一定的演变趋势,以昆明和楚雄最为剧烈,曲靖和玉溪次之,而楚雄处于相对稳定的状态。结论]研究结果与滇中城市群的实际情况相符,具有较强的针对性和现实意义。

ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT LEVEL AND RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT CARRYING CAPACITY IN THE CENTRAL YUNNAN URBAN AGGLOMERATION

To study the relationship between economic development level and resources and environment carrying capacity is an important prerequisite for achieving regional economic development. Based on the application of decoupling theory and method, and combined the economic development level with resources and environment carrying capacity index system, this paper analyzed the degree of decoupling, temporal variation and spatial pattern between economic development level and resources & environment carrying capacity in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration from 2006 to 2014. The results showed that, (i) the overall economic development level experienced a process of strong decoupling, weak decoupling, strong decoupling and strong decoupling. The time series showed a "M" type and inverted "V" type change; (ii) the decoupling degree showed a fluctuating trend with a decoupling rate of 37.5% which achieved the highest value in 2011 ~ 2012, or 2012 ~ 2013. The decoupling degree showed an obvious spatial distribution patterns, which was most intense in Kunming, weaker in Qujing and Yuxi, and stable in Chuxiong. iii) The results were consistent with the actual situation in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration, which indicated a great practical significance.