家庭生命周期视角下农村居民点整理的农户意愿影响因素研究

目的 家庭生命周期是研究农户行为的重要理论视角。文章借鉴家庭生命周期理论的内涵，利用扬州市邗江区289户微观样本，剖析家庭生命周期视角下农村居民点整理的农户意愿的影响因素。方法 统计分析法和有序Logit模型。结果 （1）家庭生命周期特征变量对农村居民点整理的农户意愿有显著影响，其影响程度由大到小依次为初始家庭＞成熟的核心家庭＞成长中的核心家庭＞扩大家庭＞萎缩家庭；（2）政策了解程度、家庭年收入、承包地面积、农民收益增加、子女就学条件改善和居住环境改善是影响农村居民点整理的农户意愿的关键因素。但在不同家庭生命周期阶段，农村居民点整理的农户意愿的关键因素存在异质性；（3）在不同家庭生命周期阶段中，农村居民点整理的农户意愿既有共同的影响因素，也存在差异性影响因素。结论 应重视农户的家庭生命周期阶段特征和演变规律，并将其作为制定农村居民点整理政策的重要依据；针对不同家庭生命周期阶段中农户意愿的共同因素，采取普适性措施；对各家庭生命周期阶段中农户意愿的差异性因素进行识别，“对症下药”。

RESEARCH ON INFLUENCING FACTORS OF FARMERS' WILLINGNESS OF RURAL SETTLEMENTS CONSOLIDATION FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF FAMILY LIFE CYCLE

Family life cycle is an important theoretical perspective to research behavior of farmers. By referring to the connotation of family life cycle theory and based on the microscopic samples of 289 households in Hanjiang district, Yangzhou city, this research uses a statistical analysis and an ordered Logit model to analyze influencing factors of farmers'' willingness to rural settlements consolidation from perspective of family life cycle. The results showed that: (1) Family life cycle had a significant impact on farmers'' willingness, and its ranking of influence degree was newborn family (NF) > mature nuclear family (MNF) > growing nuclear family (GNF) > expanding family (EF) > shrinking family (SF). (2) Policy understanding, family annual income, contracted land area, increase of farmers'' earnings, improvement of children''s schooling conditions and improvement of living environment were key influencing factors of farmers'' willingness, but there was heterogeneity among these key influencing factors at different stages of family life cycle. (3) In different stages of family life cycle, there were both common and different influencing factors of farmers'' willingness. In view of this, some suggestions are recommended: paying attention to characteristics and evolution rules of family life cycle, and taking them as important basis for formulating policy of rural settlements consolidation; adopting universal measures based on common factors of farmers'' willingness in different stages of family life cycle; identifying different factors of farmers'' willingness in each stage of family life cycle.