基于均方差法的郑州市土地综合承载力评价

［目的］开展土地综合承载力评价是科学编制国土空间发展战略的基础。通过构建包含水土资源承载力、经济承载力和生态承载力3个维度土地综合承载力评价指标体系，定量刻画郑州市城市土地综合承载力的特征与轨迹。［方法］运用均方差法，选取2010—2016年郑州市城市土地综合承载力评价指标，分析其土地综合承载力特征。［结果］（1）总体上，郑州市城市土地综合承载力不断增强，水土资源承载力呈现先升—降—升的动态演变特征； 经济承载力持续增长，这源于郑州市土地经济效益的大幅提升； 生态承载力呈现波动性增强的演变特征。（2）郑州市城市土地综合承载力经历了较低—中等—较高发展历程，但土地综合承载力处于低层次的较高阶段，仍有较大提升空间。（3）为提高郑州市城市土地综合承载力，应加快“多规合一”规划的编制，科学划定城市增长边界和“三生”空间，转变城市发展理念，优化发展发展路径，提升城市土地综合承载力水平。［结论］郑州市城市土地综合承载力仍有较大提升空间，应加快建立土地综合承载力扩容的有效机制。

EVALUATION OF COMPREHENSIVE LAND CARRYING CAPACITY OF ZHENGZHOU CITY BASED ON THE METHOD OF MEAN SQUARED VARIANCE

Carrying out the evaluation of comprehensive land carrying capacity is the basis for the scientific preparation of the spatial development strategy for the country. By constructing the three dimension comprehensive land carrying capacity evaluation index system that includes land and water resources bearing capacity, economic bearing capacity and ecological carrying capacity, the evolution track of land comprehensive carrying capacity in Zhengzhou city was quantified. Using the method of mean square error, the evaluation index of land comprehensive carrying capacity in Zhengzhou city was selected from 2010 to 2014 to analyze the comprehensive bearing capacity of the land. The results showed that (1) On the whole, the comprehensive carrying capacity of land in Zhengzhou city had been continuously increasing, and the bearing capacity of water and soil resources had shown the characteristics of dynamic evolution before falling and rising; the economic carrying capacity had steadily increased, which was due to the substantial increase in the economic benefits of land in Zhengzhou city; The ecological carrying capacity showed a characteristic of volatility; social carrying capacity continued to increase. (2) The comprehensive carrying capacity of land in Zhengzhou experienced a low medium high development history. However, the comprehensive land carrying capacity was at a relatively low level and there was still room for improvement. (3) In order to improve the comprehensive carrying capacity of land in Zhengzhou city, it should scientifically compile plans, change the mode of economic development, and optimize the comprehensive bearing capacity of land. There is still room for improvement in the comprehensive carrying capacity of land in Zhengzhou city, and an effective mechanism for the expansion of the comprehensive carrying capacity of land should be accelerated.