影响我国气候旱区粮食生产能力的灰色关联分析

文章根据投入产出分析的相关理论,结合其他学者的研究成果,确定了影响气候旱区粮食生产能力的主要因素。包括粮食作物播种面积、粮食作物种植结构、粮食单位面积产量、有效灌溉面积、农业从业人数、农用化肥施用折纯量、农业机械总动力及受灾面积、财政对粮食直接补贴资金额、年均降水量等。通过选取2000~2013年统计数据,运用灰色关联分析法,对这些因素与气候旱区粮食总产量进行相关性分析,表明财政对粮食直接补贴资金额、农用化肥施用折纯量、粮食单位面积产量、玉米播种面积占粮食作物播种面积比例及受灾面积与粮食产量高度相关,对提升粮食生产能力的影响较大;小麦播种面积占粮食作物播种面积比例、农业机械总动力、有效灌溉面积、农业从业人数、粮食作物播种面积、年均降水量都与粮食产量中度相关,对提升粮食生产能力的影响较小。因此应继续推行政府对粮食直接补贴政策、增加政府对粮食直补资金,同时,增加物质投入、提高农业科技水平、改善农业灌溉条件、调整粮食种植结构、提高粮食单位面积产量、减少受灾面积来提升粮食生产能力,增加粮食产量。

GREY CORRELATION ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF GRAIN PRODUCTIONCAPACITY IN CHINA′S ARID RIGION

Based on the related theory of input-output analysis, in combination with the research achievements of other scholars, this paper determined the main factors affecting grain production capacity in arid regions, including food crops planting area, planting structure of grain, grain yield per unit area, effective irrigated area, agricultural workers, net agricultural fertilizer quantity, total power of agricultural machinery,disaster-stricken area, govern-ment subsidy policy for grain and average annual precipitation. According to statistical data selected from 2000 to 2013, it analyzed the total grain output in arid regions by using the grey correlation analysis. The results showed that the factors such as the government subsidy policy for grain,net agricultural fertilizer amount, per unit area yield of grain, corn planting ratio in grain planting area, and the disaster-stricken,were highly related to raising grain production capacity. Whereas, to some extent, other factors such as wheat planting ratio in grain planting area, to-tal power of agricultural machinery, effective irrigation area, number of farmers, and crops planting area are associ-ated with grain production capacity had less impact to improve grain production. To sum up, It put forward some suggestions, such as to continue to implement the government′s direct subsidy policy, increase the government′s grain subsidy funds, at the same time,enhance the grain production capacity, increase material inputs, improve the level of agricultural science and technology, perfect the agricultural irrigation condition, adjust grain plant struc-ture, increase grain yield per unit area, and reduce the disaster-stricken planting area.