基于熵值法的河南省新型城镇化风险识别研究

目的]建立新型城镇化风险识别体系与方法,有助于规避和降低新型城镇化发展中的潜在风险,为推进新型城镇化健康发展提供参考和依据。方法]文章通过构建包含政治风险、经济风险、社会风险、生态风险等4个维度共17个指标的新型城镇化风险识别评价指标体系,采用熵值法和极值法对2010—2014年河南省新型城镇化风险进行测度。结果]整体上,河南省新型城镇化风险呈现逐年下降的趋势,风险综合风险指数由2010年的0. 793下降至2014年的0. 199,年均下降率为14. 98%。其中,政治风险呈波动性变化态势;社会风险显著下降,且城乡差距逐年缩小,表明河南省城乡一体化成效开始显现;经济风险指数也呈现下降趋势,河南省经济增长实现了中高速平稳增长,经济发展质量不断提升;生态风险显著降低,说明新型城镇化逐步摆脱以牺牲环境为代价的传统经济发展模式。结论]为加快推进新型城镇化发展,提升城镇化发展质量,应转变经济发展方式,破解土地财政依赖难题,加快生态文明建设。

RESEARCH ON RISK IDENTIFICATION OF URBANIZATION BASED ON THE ENTROPY METHOD IN HENAN PROVINCE

Establishing a new type of urbanization risk identification system and method helps to avoid and reduce potential risks in the development of new urbanization and provide reference and basis for promoting the healthy development of new urbanization. By constructing an index system of 17 indicators including four dimensions: political risk, economic risk, social risk and ecological risk, the paper used the entropy method and the extreme value method to measure the new urbanization risk in Henan province from 2010 to 2014.In general, the risk of new type urbanization in Henan province is gradually declining. The comprehensive risk index for risks decreased from 0.793 in 2010 to 0.199 in 2014,with an average annual rate of decline of 14.98%.The political risk is characterized by volatility; the social risk has obviously decreased; the urban rural gap has been declining year by year, this shows the effectiveness of urban and rural integration has begun to show in Henan province; the urban rural integration has achieved remarkable results; the economic risk index has been declining; the economic growth has been smoothly running at medium and high speeds; the quality of economic development has been remarkably improved; the new urbanization has gradually got rid of the traditional path of development at the expense of the environment. In order to accelerate the development of new type urbanization and upgrade the quality of urbanization development, we should change the mode of economic development, solve the problem of dependence on land finance, and increase the scale of ecologically civilized land use.