中国村庄数量演变的地区差异与影响因素

目的 系统研究中国村庄数量演变过程及其成因，是为科学认知乡村地域发展规律，为落实乡村振兴战略、推进乡村地域系统持续健康发展具有重要参考意义。方法 文章以宏观层面的社会经济数据和电子地图数据为基础，采用GIS空间分析方法，从时间和空间两个维度探讨中国村庄数量演变过程、空间分布和区位特征。结果 （1）1990—2016年中国行政村数量呈大幅度下降趋势，减少幅度为29.2%。其中2000—2006年减少幅度最大，占研究期减少数量的85.54%；（2）中国行政村分布与演变的区域差异显著。华东区行政村数量分布远高于其他区域，其次为华中、华南、华北区。村庄数量高速减少省区主要分布在上海、江苏等东部省区和四川、重庆、陕西等中部省区；村庄数量高速减少县主要位在东部发达地区和中西部社会经济落后、农业生产条件较差地区。（3）村庄空间分布类型总体呈现为集聚型分布，在空间上出现2个多核心带状高密度集聚区和1个单核心集聚区，分别位于华北平原、长江中游平原和广东东部沿海地区；村庄数量区位特征显著，整体上绝大部分村庄分布在低海拔与现状水系和交通道路具有较好的邻近性；（4）乡村人口数量、城乡居民收入差异、城镇居民可支配收入、农业机械总动力、大中型农用拖拉机数、农林牧鱼业生产总值等是影响我国村庄数量变化的直接因素。结论 生态环境脆弱区和地质灾害多发区、经济社会发展较快区和城镇化水平较高区是中国村庄数量大幅度减少区。自然资源禀赋及其地域差异是村庄分布格局形成和发展的重要基础，城镇化发展与乡村人口转移是村庄数量减少的重要驱动力，农业机械化和农业生产效率的提高缓解了村庄数量减少速度，政策对村庄数量演变进程具有重要调节作用。

REGIONAL DIFFERENCES AND INFLUENCING FACTORS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE NUMBER OF VILLAGES IN CHINA

Based on the macro level economic and social data and electronic map data, this paper used GIS spatial analysis method to explore the evolution process, spatial distribution and location characteristics of administrative villages in China from two scales of time and space. The results showed that: (1) The number of administrative villages in China decreased by 29.2% from 1990 to 2016. Among them, the largest decrease was in 2000-2006, accounting for 85.54% of the decrease in the study period. (2)There were significant regional differences in the distribution and evolution of administrative villages in China. The number of administrative villages in east China was much higher than that in other regions, followed by central, southwest and North China. The number of villages decreased rapidly in the eastern provinces such as Shanghai and Jiangsu, and in the central provinces such as Sichuan, Chongqing and Shaanxi. The high-speed reduction of the number of villages in the counties was mainly in the eastern developed areas and the central and western areas of social and economic backwardness, poor agricultural production conditions. In short, the fragile ecological environment and geological disaster prone areas, the rapid economic and social development areas and the relatively high level of urbanization were the significant reduction areas of Chinese villages.(3)The spatial distribution type of the village was generally concentrated. There were two multi-core belt high-density agglomeration areas and one single core agglomeration area, which were located in the North China Plain, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Plain and the eastern coastal area of Guangdong province. On the whole, most of the villages were located in the low altitude, which was close to the current water system and traffic road. (4) The natural resource endowment and its regional difference were the important foundation for the formation and development of the village distribution pattern. The urbanization development and the rural population transfer were the important driving forces for the reduction of the number of villages. The improvement of agricultural mechanization and agricultural production efficiency eases the speed of the reduction of the number of villages. The policy plays an important role in regulating the evolution of the number of villages.