长江中下游地区农业经济增长中隐含虚拟耕地资源“尾效”对比研究*

目的]为进一步科学、系统地评估长江中下游地区主要农产品隐含的虚拟耕地资源对农业经济增长的约束或促进作用,进而为国家正确制定和执行合理的土地管理政策提供参考依据。方法]基于新古典经济增长理论构建农业经济增长中隐含的虚拟耕地资源"尾效"模型,以长江中下游地区7省、市为例进行实证对比分析,并尝试探索虚拟耕地资源"尾效"存在区域差异的原因。结果]长江中下游地区主要农产品虚拟耕地资源与农业经济增长存在显著相关,虚拟耕地资源的投入进一步加速了浙江、上海和江苏的经济发展,对安徽、湖南、湖北、江西经济发展的促进和约束程度变化不一;虚拟耕地资源增长率、虚拟耕地资源弹性系数、资本弹性系数是虚拟耕地资源"尾效"存在区域差异的主要原因。结论]长江中下游地区主要农产品虚拟耕地资源"尾效"整体差异明显,对农业经济增长的影响显著。

A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON THE "TAIL EFFECT" OF THE VIRTUAL CULTIVATED LAND RESOURCES IN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER REACHES OF THE YANGTZE RIVER

The purpose of this research is to further scientifically and systematically evaluate the restraint or promotion effect of the virtual cultivated land resources implied by the main agricultural products in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River on the agricultural economic growth, so as to provide reference for the country to correctly formulate and implement reasonable land management policies. Based on the neoclassical economic growth theory, this research constructed the "tail effect" model of virtual cultivated land resources implied in agricultural economic growth. Taking seven provinces and cities in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River as an example, it made an empirical comparative analysis and tried to explore the reasons for the regional differences in the "tail effect" of virtual cultivated land resources. There was a significant correlation between the virtual cultivated land resources of main agricultural products and agricultural economic growth in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The input of virtual cultivated land resources further accelerated the economic development of Zhejiang, Shanghai and Jiangsu, and had different degrees of promotion and restriction on the economic development of Anhui, Hunan, Hubei and Jiangxi. The main reasons for the regional differences in the "tail effect" of virtual cultivated land resources were the growth rate of virtual cultivated land resources, the elasticity coefficient of virtual cultivated land resources and the elasticity coefficient of capital. The "tail effect" of virtual cultivated land resources of main agricultural products in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is significantly different, which has a significant impact on agricultural economic growth.