我国肉羊生产重心演变路径研究

目的]基于1990—2018年我国肉羊产业29个省(区、市)的相关统计数据,定量研究肉羊生产重心的演变路径,为优化我国肉羊生产区域布局提供依据。方法]采用重心模型计算1990—2018年全国羊肉产量、羊出栏量、羊肉单产等指标重心,对比分析1990—2018年全国羊肉产量、羊出栏量、羊肉单产重心的演变路径、偏移轨迹及移动距离等。结果]总体上, 1990—2003年肉羊生产重心主要向东南、东北方向偏移;2004—2008年主要向东北、西北方向偏移;2009—2018年主要向西南、西北方向偏移。研究发现,在重心演变路径的变化上,羊肉产量与羊出栏量变化趋势基本一致,而由于各区域肉羊生产在技术、生产组织方式等方面存在明显的追赶学习效应,所以羊肉单产重心变化情况与前两者不同。羊出栏量重心年均移动距离最大,羊肉单产年均重心移动距离最小。重心波动剧烈程度由强至弱排序为羊肉单产、羊出栏量、羊肉产量。结论]在政策上,国家产业政策对肉羊生产区域布局具有一定的影响,应不断优化肉羊生产区域布局政策,促进肉羊产业发展;在肉羊生产上,目前我国羊肉单产仍不够高,应加大肉羊优良品种选育力度,提高肉羊生产技术水平,以改善羊肉单产不高的情况;在肉羊生产重心由北向南移动的情况下,应适当扶持生产优势较强的南方地区,以减小北方地区的资源承载压力,缓解北方环境恶化问题,优化肉羊生产区域布局。

RESEARCH ON THE EVOLUTION PATH OF CENTER OF GRAVITY FOR MUTTON SHEEP PRODUCTION IN CHINA

Based on data of mutton sheep industry from 29 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China from 1990 to 2018, the quantitative research studies the evolution path of gravity center for mutton sheep production, which provides evidence for optimizing the regional layout of mutton sheep production in China. The center of gravity model was used to calculate the gravity indicators, such as the national mutton output, the number of sheep slaughtered, and mutton yield from 1990 to 2018, and to compare their evolution path, shifting tracks, and moving distance. In general, from 1990 to 2003, the gravity of the mutton sheep production mainly shifted to the southeast and northeast. For the period from 2004 to 2008, it mainly shifted to the northeast and northwest. From 2009 to 2018, it shifted to the southwest and northwest. This study found that as the evolution path changes, the trends of mutton output and the number of sheep slaughtered was basically consistent. However, due to the significant catch up learning effect in the technology and industry organizations across regions, the changes in the center of gravity for mutton yield was different. The annual average moving distance of the gravity center for the number of sheep slaughtered was the largest, and the center of gravity for mutton yield was the smallest. The volatility of the center of gravity for mutton yield, the number of sheep slaughtered, and mutton output become weak one by one. So, in terms of policy, the national industrial policy has some influences on the regional layout of mutton sheep production. The policy of regional layout of mutton sheep production should be continuously optimized to promote the development of the mutton sheep industry. As for the production of mutton sheep, the current mutton yield in China is still not high enough. More efforts should be put on breeding and technology improvement to boost the low yield of mutton. With the center of gravity for mutton sheep production shifting from north to south, the southern regions with production advantages should be properly supported to reduce resource bearing pressure of the northern regions, so as to alleviate the problem of environmental degradation in the north and optimize the layout of the mutton sheep production.