基于LMDI模型的世界甘蔗增产要素研究

目的]甘蔗增产是在食糖消费持续增长趋势下,世界糖业市场稳定的重要原因。揭示甘蔗增产要素,不仅能为甘蔗生产市场监测提供必要的理论支撑,而且还可以发现资源环境约束下甘蔗可持续发展的路径选择。方法]基于LMDI模型,文章从世界和国别两个视角,剖析世界甘蔗增产的主要贡献因素。结果]1961—2014年世界甘蔗生产逐渐向优势区域集中,产量提升2倍,其中70%增产源于播种面积扩张,30%来自单产提升;面积扩张对多数国家甘蔗增产的贡献大于单产提高,中国甘蔗增产同样得力于面积扩张,但单产提升显著,贡献率高达34%,位居世界前列;甘蔗生产中的资源环境问题逐渐凸显,现有的甘蔗增产模式已给脆弱的生态环境造成了深远的负面影响。结论]资源环境约束背景下,转变甘蔗增产模式迫在眉睫,必须加快由依赖面积扩张的粗放型增长模式向单产提升的集约型生产模式转变的步伐,方可实现中国乃至世界甘蔗糖业的可持续发展。

CONTRIBUTION FACTORS TO WORLD′S INCREASING SUGARCANE PRODUCTION BASED ON LMDI MODEL

Increasing sugarcane production is the main reason of the stability of the world sugar market with the increasing sugar consumption. Uncovering the reason of increasing sugarcane production not only provides a theoretical support for monitoring the sugarcane production market, but also indicates a sustainable development path of sugarcane planting with limited natural resources. Based on LMDI model, this paper analyzed the dominant factors behind increasing sugarcane production in the world from the perspectives of world and country. The results showed that the world sugarcane production tripled and gradually concentrated in the area with the natural resources advantages during 1961-2014. The area expansion contributed more to increasing sugarcane production than yield increase, whose contribution rates were 70% and 30% respectively. In China, 34% of the increasing production came from yield increase, slightly above the world average. As sugarcane planting had faced serious environmental problems, the existing planting mode had been not suitable any longer and had a growing negative impact on the fragile ecological environment. In the end, this paper emphasizes the urgency and necessity to accelerate the transformation from the extensive planting mode of area expansion to intensive planting mode of yield increase with limited natural resources, aiming to achieve the sustainable growth of sugarcane production in China and the world.