中长期结合的科技论文评价方法研究

目的]通过构建土地利用效益与新型城镇化评价指标体系,评价长江中游地区土地利用效益与新型城镇化协调发展度.方法]运用由全局主成分分析法、均方差权值法构成的综合确权法,基于耦合度、协调发展度模型探讨2006~2014年长江中游地区土地利用效益与新型城镇化的协调发展关系,并进行时空上的分析与评价,借助空间自相关模型探讨协调发展水平的空间集聚特征.结果]长江中游地区土地利用效益与新型城镇化协调发展水平总体较高,协调发展类型由研究基期的低度协调型逐步优化为末期的中高度协调型.武汉都市圈为协调发展度高水平集聚区;协调发展度高值点主要集中在武汉与长沙,协调发展度低值点由基期的益阳、娄底等城市转变为末期的宜昌、咸宁、鹰潭等地.2006~2012年Moran′s I值均为负,协调发展度集聚特征由相异属性集聚向随机状态转变, 2014年Moran′s I值正,协调发展度呈相似属性集聚状态.结论]长江中游地区协调发展度空间集聚特征呈现由相异属性集聚向相似属性集聚状态转化,协调聚集区空间格局趋于稳定,发展态势良好.

BRIEFLY DISCUSSION ON THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM EVALUATION METHOD OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL PAPERS

The coordinated degree between land use efficiency and new urbanization is the core issue of land science.Using Generalization Principal Component Analysis, Mean-Squared Deviation Weight to determine the index weight, based on the coupling degree model and coordination development degree model, this paperdiscussed the relationship between land use efficiency and new urbanization in 2006~2014.The spatial autocorrelation model was used to explore the characteristics of spatial agglomeration of coordinated development level.The results showed thatthe coordinated development level between land use efficiency and new urbanization of the middle reaches of Yangtze River was generally high.The type of coordination development changed from the low to the moderate and high coordination.Wuhan Metropolitan hada high gathering area for coordinated development level.The high value points of coordinated development degree mainly concentrated in Wuhan and Changsha.The low value points concentrated in Yiyang and Loudi.The value of Moran′s I was negative in 2006~2012, and the agglomeration characteristics of coordination development degree transformed from diversity attribute clustering to random distribution.The Moran′s I was positive value in 2014, which indicated that the coordinated development degree was in similar attribute aggregation state.As a whole, the characteristics of spatial agglomeration of coordinated development degree in the middle reaches of Yangtze River transformed from diversity attribute clustering to similar attribute.The spatial pattern of the coordination gathering area tended to be stable and good.