干旱风险冲击下牧户适应性生计策略及其影响因素

牧区连续严重干旱风险威胁着牧户生计,导致牧户的干旱风险管理成为其日常生计活动。准确理解和研究牧户应对日益严重的干旱风险的生计策略及其影响因素,在牧区发展政策措施的制定与实施以及提高牧民应对干旱风险能力方面具有重要的理论指导与实践意义。文章以英国国际发展署(DFID)的可持续生计分析框架和FAO的农户可持续生计灾害风险管理分析框架为基础,基于内蒙古草原牧区牧户的调研数据,借鉴已有研究成果并结合牧区实际建立牧户生计资本指标并进行测度,并运用Logit模型对牧户应对干旱风险所采取的多种生计策略的影响因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明:自然资本和金融资本是影响牧户应对干旱风险策略及组合最为广泛和显著的因素,其次为社会资本、物质资本和人力资本。因此,通过合理的草场流转制度、放牧制度和畜牧业信贷制度构建、生态环境保护补偿标准提高以及现代畜牧业产业组织方式的建立等方面提高牧户的自然资本和金融资本水平,能够增强牧户应对干旱风险的能力。

INFLUENCE FACTORS AND ADAPTIVE LIVELIHOOD STRATEGIES ADOPTED BY PASTORALISTS UNDER DROUGHT RISKIN PASTORAL AREA

Constant serious drought risk in pastoral area has threatened the livelihood of pastoralists,and hence drought risk management becomes daily livelihood strategies. To study the livelihood strategies addressing increasingly serious drought risk and influencing factors has important significance in theoretical guidance and practices for making pastoral development policy and enhancing the capacity addressing drought risk for pastoralists. Based on sustainable livelihood analysis framework of DFID and sustainable livelihood disaster risk management for farmer of FAO and survey data in grassland pastoral area of Inner Mongolia, this paper analyzed the factors to adopt measures to cope with drought risk by using logit model. The results showed that natural capital and financial capital were the most widespread and significant factors for coping with drought risk, following by social capital, physical capital and human capital. Consequently, increasing levels of natural capital and financial capital of pastoralists, such as building some reasonable system such as grassland circulation, grazing and credit and loan for animal husbandry, enhancing compensation standard for ecological protection, and establishing modern industrial organization of animalhusbandry, can enhance the ability to cope with drought risk.