河北省耕地压力与经济发展的时空耦合研究

目的]通过测度河北省耕地压力指数,分析其时空变化,再利用GDP和人均GDP等数据探明河北省耕地压力与经济发展的空间关联和耦合关系。方法]文章利用人均最小耕地面积公式计算耕地压力指数的变化,利用地理联系率、重心模型等方法拟合了河北省耕地压力指数重心与GDP重心、人均GDP重心演变轨迹,进而测算其地理集中度和耦合指数,分析耕地压力和经济发展的时空耦合类型。结果](1)1978~2014年间河北省耕地压力指数从1.16震荡下降至0.91,期间经济发展速度较快,2014年GDP达2.942 12万亿元。(2)河北省耕地压力与经济发展存在密切的联系,2010年耕地压力指数与GDP、人均GDP的地理联系率均超过95,三者的重心移动轨迹保持较高的一致性。结论]河北省耕地压力与经济发展耦合关系明显,耦合类型随着时间的推移发生演变,越来越多地级市的耕地压力与经济发展的耦合指数逐渐趋近于1。

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF COUPLING OF CULTIVATED LAND PRESSURE WITH ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN HEBEI PROVINCE

This paper analyzed the spatial correlation and coupling relationship between the cultivated land pressure and the economic development in Hebei province, measured the cultivated land pressure index using geographic contact rate and gravity model method, pointed out its spatial-temporal change based on the data of GDP and GDP per capita, calculated the geographical concentration and coupling index, and analyzed the temporal and spatial coupling types of cultivated land pressure and economic development. The results showed that: (1) the cultivated land pressure index in Hebei province declined from 1.16 to 0.91 during 1978 to 2014.The economy of Hebei province developed in a high speed during this time and the GDP was 2942.12 billion. (2) there was a close relationship between the cultivated land pressure and economic development in Hebei province. The geographical connection rates of cultivated land pressure and the geographical with GDP and GDP per capita were more than 95 in 2010. And the development trace of the cultivated land pressure index maintained a high consistency with the development trace of the GDP center gravity and the GDP per capita center gravity. The coupling relationship between the pressure index of cultivated land and economic development in Hebei province was obvious, more and more coupling indexes of cultivated land pressure and economic development of city were gradually close to 1.