经济发展与收入分配对社会保障支出的影响——基于安徽省面板数据的门槛模型研究

经济的高质量发展需要社会保障体系的进一步完善,收入分配制度是影响经济发展水平与质量的重要因素,因此研究其三者之间关系对社会发展具有重要意义。文章基于2008—2018年安徽省面板数据,从收入分配的角度,采用非线性门槛模型研究经济发展对社会保障支出的影响机制。研究发现:经济发展水平与社会保障支出之间并不是简单的线性关系,收入分配程度使得经济发展水平对政府社会保障支出规模的作用路径呈现出非线性特征,即存在单门槛效应,且城乡收入不平等差距的缩小将有利于社会保障支出规模的提升。因此,政府应大力缩小收入差距,保障经济的高质量发展,扩大社会保障支出规模,完善社会保障制度。

Analysis of the Impact of Economic Development and Income Distribution on Social Security Expenditure:Research on Threshold Model Based on Anhui Province Panel Data

The high-quality development of economy needs the further improvement of the social security system.The income distribution system is an important factor affecting the level and quality of economic development.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the relationship among the three.Based on the panel data of Anhui province from 2008 to 2018,this paper uses the nonlinear threshold model to study the impact mechanism of economic development on social security expenditure from the perspective of income distribution.It is found that there is not a simple linear relationship between the level of economic development and social security expenditure.The degree of income distribution makes the effect path of economic development level on the scale of government social security expenditure nonlinear.That is,there is a single threshold effect,and the narrowing of the income inequality gap between urban and rural areas will help to improve the scale of social security expenditure.Therefore,the government should strive to narrow the income gap,ensure high-quality economic development,expand the scale of social security expenditure,and improve the social security system.