基于系统动力学的区域林业碳汇市场中三方主体利益行为演化博弈分析

分析影响三者策略行为的作用因素,构建区域林业碳汇市场的演化博弈模型。在此基础上,结合系统动力学理论,对广东省的碳汇发展状况进行仿真模拟,找出影响市场均衡发展的关键因素。结果表明:政府部门趋向于选择投入策略,其中提高市场碳交易额对拉动市场需求有显著影响,而增强对林农碳汇林的补贴力度难以解决市场当前供需问题。

Game Analysis on the Evolution of Tripartite Interests in Regional Forestry Carbon Sink Market Based on System Dynamics

The benefits that the main body participates in the market are the key topromoting the construction of the evolutionary game model of regional forestry carbon sequestration market. On this basis, this article made analogue simulation of the development of carbon sequestration in Guangdong Provincecombined with the theory of system dynamics, and to identify the key factors affecting the balanced development of the market. The results showed that the government departments tended to choose the ’invest’ strategy, in which increasing the carbon trading volume of the market has a significant impact on stimulating market demand, and it’s difficult to solve the current supply and demand market problems by increasing the subsidies to the forest farmers.It’s suggested that the local governmentshould promote the steady development of regional forestry carbon.