基于GM(1,1)模型的造纸业上市公司财务研究——以冠豪高新为例

财务风险是企业调整发展战略、提升管理水平的重要参考指标之一。财务风险预测模型的建立能够预测企业在中短期内的财务风险,为企业敲响警钟。以造纸业上市公司冠豪高新为例,选取近五年财务杠杆系数为风险指标,建立GM(1,1)风险预测模型,结果显示该公司短期内财务风险呈下降趋势,调查发现这主要得益于产品成本的降低以及营销策略的改变。

Research on Financial Risk of Listed Companies Paper Industry Based on GM(1,1)Model

Financial risk is one of the important reference indexes for an enterprise to adjust its development strategy and improve its management level.The establishment of financial risk prediction model can forecast the financial risk of enterprises in the short and medium term in order to ring the alarm for enterprises.This paper took Guanhao hi-tech which was a listed paper-making company as an example to establish a GM(1,1)risk prediction model by selecting the financial leverage coefficient as the risk index in recent five years.The results showed that the financial risk of the company was declining in the short term,which was benefit from the reduction of product cost and the change of marketing strategies.