| Abstract: | From recent projection studies it can be concluded that future dairy exports by the EEC to the Less Developed Countries (LDCs) will increase. The self-sufficiency ratio for dairy products in the EEC will increase because of strong, technologically induced, growth of production potential. On the one hand, surplus production in the EEC will be difficult to curtail as the unfavourable conditions of the general economy will impede outmigration of inputs. Import demand, on the other hand, is projected to increase as many populations will be moving into stages of higher growth of income. Thus, input restrictions of agriculture in industrialised countries may be unnecessary. In this paper some agricultural economic aspects of the implied trade relationships are discussed. It is concluded that LDCs are not likely to benefit from gains of trade as predicted by theory of free trade and international specialisation. From projections by model studies, however, no consensus emerged. Projection and model studies seem hardly suited to provide insight in the effects of international trade under conditions of imperfect competition. |
