基于VAR模型的中国海洋产业发展与宏观经济增长关联机制研究

本文以海洋产业发展与宏观经济增长之间的依赖关系为研究对象,以金融学、产业经济学理论为基础,通过建立VAR模型、进行协整检验,并借助脉冲响应函数、方差分解,系统阐述了海洋产业与宏观经济之间的具体依存关系,预测并分析了金融危机对中国海洋产业的影响。结果表明,海洋产业发展与宏观经济增长之间有着显著的关联关系,但二者的相互影响机制存在差异。其中,宏观经济对海洋产业影响的释放需要约两年的时间。预计2009年将是中国海洋产业面临金融危机挑战的关键时刻。据此,本文提出了我国海洋产业应对金融危机的对策建议。

Mechanism research of the relationship between marine industry development and macro economic growth in China based on VAR model

Based on financial and industry economics theory, this article studied the relationship between marine industry and macro economic growth. By establishing VAR model and co-integration test, the paper systematically described the mechanism between them by using impulse response function and variance decomposition method, and then analyzed the financial crisis＇ influence on marine industry. The conclusion showed that the macro economy need two years to display the affects and forecasted that the 2009 would be the key period for marine industry coping with the crisis.