无锡市水生态足迹与水资源可持续发展评价

分析评价无锡市水资源可持续发展水平,基于水生态足迹和水生态承载力计算模型,构建包含水生态盈亏、万元GDP水生态足迹、水生态可持续指数3个指标的水资源可持续发展综合评价模型,并结合ARIMA模型对无锡市水资源可持续发展趋势进行预测。结果表明:2008—2015年无锡市水生态足迹波动上升,万元GDP水生态足迹逐年下降,除2013年出现水生态赤字,水资源呈弱不可持续发展状态外,其余年份水生态承载力均略大于水生态足迹,水生态可持续指数维持在0.55~0.66,处于弱可持续发展状态;若维持目前的水资源利用模式,预测得2016—2020年无锡市水生态足迹逐年增加,水生态可持续指数有降到弱不可持续水平的风险。

Water ecological footprint and sustainable development of water resources in Wuxi City

In order to analyze and evaluate the sustainable development level of water resources in Wuxi City, a comprehensive evaluation model for the sustainable development of water resources is established based on the model for calculating the ecological footprint and carrying capacity of water. This model includes three indices: ecological profit and loss of water, ten-thousand yuan GDP ecological footprint of water and ecological sustainability index of water. Combined with the ARIMA model, the sustainable development trend of water resources in Wuxi City is predicted. The results show that during the period from 2008 to 2015, the water ecological footprint of Wuxi City increases with fluctuations, and that of ten-thousand yuan GDP decreases year by year. Except for the water ecological deficit in 2013, the water resources are in a weak and unsustainable development state. In other years, the ecological carrying capacity of water is slightly greater than the water ecological footprint, and the ecological sustainability index of maintained in the rage of 0. 55 to 0. 66, which is in a weak and sustainable development state. If the current mode of water resources utilization is maintained, it can be predicted that the water ecological footprint of Wuxi City will increase year by year from 2016 to 2020, and the ecological sustainability index of water will be in a risk of falling to a weak and unsustainable level.