| 济南市水资源承载力系统动力学模拟研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨巧宁,孙希华,张婧,王亚平.济南市水资源承载力系统动力学模拟研究[J].水利经济,2010,28(2):16-20. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨巧宁 孙希华 张婧 王亚平 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东师范大学人口·资源与环境学院,山东,济南,250014 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用系统动力学原理,在全面分析济南市水资源承载力系统的基础上,建立了水资源承载力系统动力学模型,模拟了在自然延续型、经济发展型、节水型、协调发展型4种方案下济南市2001～2020年水资源承载力的动态变化。结果表明,协调发展型方案是提高济南市水资源承载力,保证社会、经济与环境协调发展的最可行方案,该方案下模拟的2020年济南市水资源可承载的工业总产值和城镇人口分别为4 989.21亿元和515.55万人。
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| 关 键 词： | 水资源承载力 系统动力学模型 决策变量 济南市 |
| 修稿时间： | 2010/4/1 0:00:00 |
Simulation of carrying capacity of water resources in Jinan City based on system dynamics model |
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| YANG Qiao-ning,et al.Simulation of carrying capacity of water resources in Jinan City based on system dynamics model[J].Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2010,28(2):16-20. |
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| Authors: | YANG Qiao-ning |
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| Institution: | YANG Qiao-ning,et al (College of Population,Resource , Environment,Sh,ong Normal University,Jinan 250014,China) |
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| Abstract: | By use of the theories of system dynamics, a SD model for the carrying capacity of water resources was established through the comprehensive analysis of the system of water resources carrying capacity in Jinan City. The dynamic changes of the carrying capacity of water resources in Jinan City from 2001 to 2020 were simulated under the 4 kinds of schemes: natural continuation type, economic development type, water-saving type and harmonious development type. The results show that the harmonious development t... |
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| Keywords: | water resource carrying capacity SD model decision variable Jinan |
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