| 张家港市工业需水量预测风险分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵立梅,唐德善.张家港市工业需水量预测风险分析[J].水利经济,2004,22(5):45-47. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵立梅 唐德善 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学水利水电学院,江苏,南京,210098 |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍工业需水量预测的主要方法，综合分析工业需水量预测中的风险因素。在此基础上。运用德尔菲法等风险估计方法对张家港市未来工业需水量进行预测，并通过风险决策选出最优方案。
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| 关 键 词： | 风险分析 工业需水量 德尔菲法 风险度 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-9511(2004)05-0045-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年6月4日 |
Risk analysis on prediction of industrial water requirement in Zhangjiagang |
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| ZHAO Li-mei,et al.Risk analysis on prediction of industrial water requirement in Zhangjiagang[J].Journal of Economics of Water Resources,2004,22(5):45-47. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Li-mei |
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| Abstract: | This paper introduces the main method to predict industrial water requirement, to analyse totally risk factors in prediction of industrial water requirement. On this basis, the risk assessment methods, such as the Delphi law, are used to predict the industrial water requirement in the future in Zhangjiagang, and the optimum scheme in terms of the risk decision-making is determined. |
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| Keywords: | risk analysis industrial water requirement Delphi method risk degree |
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