重大水利工程项目决策社会稳定风险评估中的公众参与博弈

为改善重大水利工程项目决策社会稳定风险评估中公众参与现状,从社会稳定风险评估3个主要利益主体——中央政府、地方政府与公众不同的利益诉求出发,运用演化博弈模型,探讨在不同利益诉求的相互作用下影响地方政府与公众在社会稳定风险评估中策略选择的因素。研究发现,当公众受到的损失大于参与付出的成本时,双方稳定均衡状态均表现积极,反之,双方可能均表现为消极或积极这两种截然不同的状态。基于此,分析了中央政府对地方政府和公众在社会稳定风险评估博弈中策略选择的影响。最后,提出应加大对地方政府的支持、规范公众参与相关制度、加大教育培训及宣传力度、创新公众参与方式几项政策建议。

Public participation game in social stability risk evaluation for decision-making of large hydraulic projects

In order to improve the public participation and the effectiveness of the social stability risk evaluation for decision-making of large hydraulic projects, based on different interests of the central government, the local government and the public, the influencing factors for the local government and the public in strategy choice are discussed by using the evolutionary game. It is found that when the suffered loss of the public is more than the cost of participation, the stable balanced state of game is positive. On the contrary, the game results may be positive or negative. Based on this, the influences of the central government on the strategy choice of the local government and the public in the game of stability evaluation are analyzed. Finally, some suggestions are put forward as follows: improvement of the support of local governments, standardization of the system of public participation, strengthening of education, training and propaganda, and innovation of the way of public participation.