河北省城镇化与水资源系统的耦合协调及预测

河北省水资源本底条件差且在城镇化进程中污染严重,导致城镇化发展与水资源系统相互胁迫、相互制约。在合理构建指标评价体系的基础上,利用层次分析法赋予权重,并结合耦合协调度模型对两系统的耦合协调态势进行实证分析。结果表明:2005—2014年河北省城镇化水平单调递增、发展迅速,而水资源系统发展相对缓慢,且在2012年出现明显转折,两系统耦合协调度先升后降。据此采用指数平滑法对2015—2017年的耦合协调度进行预测,得出耦合协调度继续降低的预测结论,并提出合理建议。

Coupling coordination and forecast of urbanization and water resource system in Hebei Province

The water resources in Hebei Province are short and seriously polluted in the process of urbanization, leading to constraints on the urbanization development and water resource system. Based on the reasonable establishment of the evaluation index system, the coupling coordination between the urbanization and water resource system in Hebei Province is empirically analyzed by using AHP to give weights and combining with the coupling coordination degree model. The results show that the urbanization level of Hebei Province monotonically increases and rapidly develops during the period of 2005 to 2014, while the development of the water resource system is relatively slow, and there is a significant turning point in 2012. The coupling coordination degree of the two systems first increases and then decreases. By using the exponential smoothing method to predict the coupling coordination degree of the next 3 years, the conclusion is drawn that the coupling coordination will continue to decrease, and reasonable suggestions are also put forward.